UFC 323: Surprise Picks

Brandon Royval vs Manel Kape

Pick: Royval to win (3.10 odds)

This is expected to be a close fight, but there are several logical edges that make Royval a live underdog. The biggest factor is work rate: Royval typically operates at a higher pace, which matters heavily in tight matchups where rounds can be decided by volume and sustained pressure.

He also brings a clear physical advantage, with height and reach working in his favor—especially useful for forcing exchanges on his terms and making Kape work harder to get into his preferred range.

Finally, Royval’s path so far includes more higher-level opponents, meaning he has already been tested against stronger overall competition. In a competitive fight where small differences matter, the combination of pace + length + experience against elite-level fighters gives Royval a realistic route to winning the decision or taking over late.

Kevin Vallejos vs Giga Chikadze

Pick: Chikadze to win (3.20 odds)

Vallejos is an exceptional talent, but the key point is that he’s still very young, and that often shows in small but costly mistakes. One of the biggest issues is that Vallejos is frequently open defensively, and stylistically that plays directly into Giga’s strengths.

Vallejos’ boxing stance is a particularly good fit for Chikadze to attack, because the Georgian striker is elite at using kicks to control distance and punish entries. The expectation here is that Giga will attack the lead leg and lower leg early, essentially “kicking up” Vallejos’ leg from the start. If that damage builds, Vallejos is likely to slow down, and the pace of the fight starts to shift toward Giga’s preferred tempo.

On top of that, Chikadze has excellent timing knees, which should be another difficult layer for Vallejos to deal with—especially if he’s coming forward in a predictable rhythm or getting forced into slower reactions due to leg damage. The fight can still be competitive because Vallejos is dangerous and talented, but the style matchup and the early leg-kick path make Giga a strong value underdog.

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Marcus “Buchecha”

Pick: Buchecha to win (2.05 odds)

This is a matchup between two fighters you don’t consider UFC-level, so there isn’t much reason to overcomplicate it. The simplest and most logical outcome is that Buchecha takes Kennedy down and finishes him with a strong chance of success.

The reasoning is straightforward: Kennedy has no real wrestling, and his jiu-jitsu is very poor, which makes him extremely vulnerable once the fight hits the mat—especially against someone like Buchecha who is built around grappling dominance.

Kennedy’s only realistic chance is if, by some kind of miracle, the fight stays standing for long enough that Buchecha can’t get the takedown sequence going. But if Buchecha gets this to the ground, the expectation is a finish rather than extended control.

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Resources Used for Betting Analysis:
Football: Footmob, Footystats, Soccerstats, Windrawwin,Opta,Statsbomb
Esports: Lolfandom
MMA/Boxing: FightDX,Sherdog,Tapology,Boxrec,oddschecker

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