Referee: Anthony Taylor (ENG)
Venue: Estádio José Alvalade, Lisbon
Picks
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PSG to win
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PSG to score over 1.5 goals
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Total shots on target – Over 7.5
Sporting dominate domestically, averaging 2.8 goals per match with 40.4 xG and 7.4 shots on target, supported by 62% possession. These numbers highlight strong attacking structure, but they come primarily in a domestic context. Against elite European opposition, defensive stability becomes harder to maintain despite solid underlying metrics at home.
PSG arrive with elite Ligue 1 data: 69.3% possession, 32.8 xG and 6.8 shots on target per match, combined with extremely high passing volume and sustained pressure in the final third. Their ability to control games away from home and convert territorial dominance into chances makes them well suited to this matchup.
With Sporting unlikely to sit extremely deep, space should open for PSG’s attackers. This game profile strongly supports a PSG win, at least two goals from the visitors, and a match with a healthy number of shots on target rather than a low-tempo tactical battle.
| Metric | Sporting CP | Paris Saint-Germain |
|---|---|---|
| FotMob rating | 7.30 | 7.17 |
| Goals per match | 2.8 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Average possession | 62.0% | 69.3% |
| Clean sheets | 10 | 9 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 40.4 | 32.8 |
| xG difference | +29.8 | +16.7 |
| Shots on target / match | 7.4 | 6.8 |
| Big chances | 75 | 56 |
| Big chances missed | 43 | 31 |
| Accurate passes / match | 467.4 | 677.8 |
| Accurate long balls / match | 21.3 | 24.6 |
| Accurate crosses / match | 4.7 | 3.8 |
| Touches in opposition box | 579 | 619 |
| Corners | 123 | 111 |
| xG conceded | 10.6 | 16.1 |
| Interceptions / match | 6.2 | 6.3 |
| Tackles / match | 17.1 | 15.2 |
| Possession won final 3rd / match | 4.9 | 6.4 |
| Saves / match | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Fouls / match | 12.6 | 10.2 |
| Yellow cards | 40 | 20 |
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