Serie A – Round 31
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Referee: Simone Sozza
Picks
- Over 2.5 Goals
- Inter Over 4.5 Shots on Target
- Over 3.5 Yellow Cards
At first glance, the statistical profile of Inter vs Roma could suggest a tighter top-level Serie A matchup, but once the deeper numbers are examined, the game looks more like one where Inter’s territorial dominance, attacking volume, and Roma’s competitive but not fully suppressive structure combine to favor goals, home shots on target, and cards as well. Inter remain one of the most complete teams in the league. They average 2.2 goals per match, have produced 58.3 expected goals, generate 6.1 shots on target per game, and have created 122 big chances. Their 1,059 touches in the opposition box and 201 corners show not only chance volume but constant pressure in advanced areas over long stretches.
Roma, by contrast, look more like a stable, well-organized team with a lower overall ceiling. Their 1.3 goals per match, 40.0 xG, and 4.4 shots on target per game are solid attacking numbers, but they do not reflect the same level of dominance as Inter’s profile. At the same time, Roma are not a passive, deep-block-only side either. Their 56.6% possession, 821 touches in the opposition box, and 153 corners indicate that they are capable of building their own attacking phases and spending time in advanced territory. That balance is important for the goals market, because Roma are unlikely to completely slow the game down, while Inter’s attacking edge still gives the match a strong chance of clearing the over line.
The over 2.5 goals selection is mainly driven by the fact that Inter’s matches are not just controlled, but also rich in high-quality chance creation. With 122 big chances and 6.1 shots on target per match, they already provide a strong over foundation by themselves. In addition, Roma’s 33.0 xG conceded suggests that even though their goals-against average looks very good, they are not completely untouchable underneath the surface. At home, Inter are expected to dominate in both possession and territory, which raises the probability that they can reach two goals on their own. Roma’s own attacking profile is also solid enough to matter, with 62 big chances and 4.4 shots on target per match, so an away contribution to the scoreline would not be surprising either. Even if Roma do not score, Inter’s pace and attacking quality still provide a realistic path to a three-goal match.
The Inter over 4.5 shots on target market stands on especially strong statistical ground. Their season average of 6.1 sits clearly above the required line, and the structure of this matchup does not suggest a downward correction. Roma’s defence may appear stable in terms of goals conceded, but their 33.0 xG conceded and 2.9 saves per match indicate that opponents still reach the point of testing the goalkeeper with real attempts. Inter’s 1,059 box touches and 201 corners show a team that lives through sustained pressure rather than isolated moments. Against that kind of attacking machine, it is very difficult for an away side to suppress shots on target over the full 90 minutes.
The over 3.5 yellow cards market is also strongly backed by both teams’ foul and disciplinary numbers. Inter commit 13.5 fouls per match and Roma 14.6, creating a combined baseline comfortably above 28, which already points toward a physical, contact-heavy contest. The card counts reinforce that interpretation: Inter have 51 yellows, Roma 55, and there is also red-card history attached to both sides. In a high-level Serie A fixture with real importance in the table and strong tactical battles in midfield, fouls to stop transitions and heavier duels are naturally more likely. That makes a line above four cards logical not only from raw data, but also from the expected rhythm of the game.
Statistical Table
| Metric | Inter | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| FotMob rating (league rank) | 7.13 (1st) | 6.96 (6th) |
| Goals per match | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average possession | 60.3% | 56.6% |
| Clean sheets | 15 | 13 |
| Average attendance | 72,566 | 62,741 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 58.3 | 40.0 |
| xG difference | 34.0 | 7.0 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.1 | 4.4 |
| Big chances | 122 | 62 |
| Big chances missed | 80 | 36 |
| Accurate passes per match | 479.9 | 402.2 |
| Accurate long balls per match | 24.0 | 23.7 |
| Accurate crosses per match | 7.4 | 4.2 |
| Penalties awarded | 6 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box | 1,059 | 821 |
| Corners | 201 | 153 |
| xG conceded | 24.4 | 33.0 |
| Interceptions per match | 6.3 | 9.0 |
| Tackles per match | 15.4 | 15.5 |
| Clearances per match | 18.3 | 21.3 |
| Possession won final 3rd | 5.1 | 4.4 |
| Penalties conceded | 2 | 1 |
| Saves per match | 2.0 | 2.9 |
| Fouls per match | 13.5 | 14.6 |
| Yellow cards | 51 | 55 |
| Red cards | — | 2 |
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