Venue: Elland Road
Referee: Peter Bankes
Picks
1. Nottingham Forest or Draw (Double Chance)
2. Over 7.5 Shots on Target
3. Over 3.5 Cards
This Leeds United vs Nottingham Forest matchup projects as a tight, physical Premier League contest based on underlying metrics. Leeds show moderate attacking output with 1.3 goals per match and 33.5 expected goals, but their negative xG difference highlights inefficiency and a lack of control in key game phases.
Defensively, Leeds remain vulnerable. Conceding 1.8 goals per match and allowing 34.8 xG across the season suggests persistent structural issues, particularly when matches become open and transitional. While their defensive activity numbers are high, they often reflect reactive defending rather than sustained control.
Nottingham Forest arrive with a more conservative attacking profile, averaging 1.0 goal per match and 26.7 xG, yet their compact structure allows them to stay competitive in away fixtures. Against a Leeds defense that concedes high-quality chances, Forest’s chances of securing at least a point are well supported by the data.
The shots-on-target market is justified by combined team averages. Leeds average 4.0 shots on target per match, with Forest contributing a further 3.7, placing the combined expectation above the 7.5 threshold. Match flow and defensive fragility further support this angle.
Disciplinary metrics also point toward a card-heavy game. Both teams commit over ten fouls per match on average and rank high in yellow card counts. With league position pressure and evenly matched sides, a physical contest is likely, reinforcing the over 3.5 cards selection. Overall, the data aligns with a closely fought match, Forest avoiding defeat, a solid volume of shots on target, and elevated disciplinary output.
| Metric | Leeds United | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| FotMob rating (league rank) | 6.75 (17th) | 6.77 (16th) |
| Goals per match | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Average possession | 45.7% | 48.0% |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 5 |
| Average attendance | 36,703 | 30,494 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 33.5 | 26.7 |
| xG difference | -1.3 | -9.0 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.0 | 3.7 |
| Big chances | 55 | 36 |
| Big chances missed | 35 | 21 |
| Accurate passes per match | 322.2 | 345.3 |
| Accurate long balls per match | 19.7 | 22.1 |
| Accurate crosses per match | 4.8 | 4.4 |
| Penalties awarded | 4 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box | 557 | 529 |
| Corners | 109 | 128 |
| xG conceded | 34.8 | 35.7 |
| Interceptions per match | 9.5 | 7.9 |
| Tackles per match | 18.0 | 17.1 |
| Clearances per match | 27.8 | 25.1 |
| Possession won final 3rd | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Penalties conceded | 4 | 5 |
| Saves per match | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Fouls per match | 10.1 | 10.4 |
| Yellow cards | 36 | 36 |
| Red cards | – | 1 |
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Resources Used for Betting Analysis:
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