Liverpool vs Tottenham

EFL Cup – Round 3
Venue: Anfield
Referee: Andrew Madley

Picks

1. Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Total Goals @ 1.88

For Liverpool vs Tottenham in the EFL Cup, my preferred pick is Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Total Goals @ 1.88. This is a cup match, so the key factor is not only overall quality, but rotation and match structure. Liverpool are unbeaten, but the 0-0 draw against Fulham was flat. Tottenham still have no Premier League goals after four matches, but they beat Charlton 5-1 in the previous EFL Cup round. That makes the goals market more attractive than a straight result angle.

Liverpool are expected to rotate. Iraola has already pointed to the workload, with this being the third match in a short period. Mamardashvili can start, Gomez may return, and Nyoni, Koumas and Ngumoha all have a chance to feature. That can bring energy and pressing intensity, but also less experience in defensive transitions. This supports the BTTS part of the bet.

Even with rotation, Liverpool have enough attacking quality. Gakpo, Muñoz, Ngumoha, Koumas and Mac Allister can create chances at Anfield against a Tottenham side that has not looked stable in the league. After the Fulham 0-0, Iraola will want sharper attacking work, especially at home in a cup match where younger players have a clear chance to prove themselves.

Tottenham’s league form is poor in attack, with no goals after four Premier League matches. But the Carabao Cup already showed a different version of them, with a 5-1 win over Charlton. De Zerbi has spoken seriously about the competition, Tottenham have no European football, and the team badly needs a positive impulse. This is not a spot where Spurs should simply play passively.

The squad values are very close: Liverpool are around €979.5m, while Tottenham are around €940.5m. That means even with changes, these are two very strong squads. Liverpool can rotate and still have strong attacking profiles, while Tottenham can use Solanke, Sávio, Kudus, Tel or Maddison to attack in a more open cup environment.

Tottenham’s absences are important, especially Tonali, Kulusevski, Porro, Xavi Simons, Odobert and Mudryk. Tonali is a major loss for midfield control, Porro reduces right-side progression and crossing, while Kulusevski and Simons remove creativity. But this does not automatically push the match toward a low-scoring game. Less control can also create a more open, transitional match.

Liverpool also have absences. Ekitiké, Bradley, Chiesa and Leoni are out, while Gomez may return but his minutes are still a factor. If Liverpool use a rotated defensive setup with Endo/Gomez, Araujo, Tsimikas or Frimpong involved, Tottenham’s attackers can find space. In a cup match with several lineup changes, defensive automatisms are rarely perfect.

Tactically, Liverpool will still press, even with rotation. With younger players like Nyoni, Koumas or Ngumoha, the press can be fresh and intense, but less controlled. That can create chances for Liverpool, while also giving Tottenham transition opportunities. For Spurs, Solanke’s box presence, Sávio’s one-vs-one ability, and Kudus or Tel’s speed give them enough routes to score.

The cup rules also help the goal angle. If the match is level, there is no extra time in the early rounds; it goes straight to penalties. That means teams do not need to manage energy for 120 minutes. Tottenham can view a draw as a realistic route to penalties, but they still need to score. Liverpool, meanwhile, should not treat this passively at Anfield after the Fulham performance.

The weather also fits the goals angle. Around Anfield, the evening should be around 15°C with light rain showers. A wet pitch can make the ball faster, increase loose touches, slips and defensive mistakes. There is no pitch problem expected, so the tempo should remain, but the slick surface can add danger in transitions.