Sassuolo vs Cesena

Coppa Italia – Round of 64
Venue: MAPEI Stadium – Città del Tricolore
Referee: Niccolò Turrini

Picks

1. Sassuolo to Win & Over 1.5 Total Goals @ 1.72

For Sassuolo vs Cesena in the Coppa Italia, my main pick is Sassuolo to Win & Over 1.5 Total Goals @ 1.72. This is a one-match cup tie with no second leg, so qualification is decided today. In this setup, the stronger home side cannot simply manage the occasion. Sassuolo need a professional result in Alberto Aquilani’s first official match.

The difference on paper is clear. Sassuolo are a Serie A team, while Cesena are a mid-table Serie B side. The squad values show the gap as well: Sassuolo are around €197.25m, while Cesena are around €19.25m. That is more than a ten-times difference, and it matters in individual quality, attacking options, bench depth and match-winning ability.

Sassuolo finished last season as a stable Serie A mid-table side, with 49 points and a 46–50 goal difference across 38 matches. They are not an elite Serie A team, but at home against Cesena this is more than enough to expect control and pressure. With Berardi, Pinamonti, Laurienté, Matic, Idzes, Doig and Muric/Turati in the squad, Sassuolo have clear quality for this level.

Aquilani’s first official game also adds motivation. This is a fresh project, but the opening match is at home, in the cup, against a lower-division opponent. It is the right spot for Sassuolo to start positively and build confidence before the league rhythm fully begins. They are the better team on the ball and should be able to turn that quality into chances.

The Over 1.5 goals leg fits the Sassuolo win well. This does not require a high-scoring game. A 2-0, 2-1 or 3-0 type of result is enough. Sassuolo have several attacking routes, especially through Berardi, Laurienté and Pinamonti. Against a Serie B defense, the wide quality of Berardi and Laurienté can be a major mismatch.

Cesena finished 11th in Serie B last season with 46 points and a 45–56 goal difference. They are not a weak side for their level, but defensively they allowed plenty, and facing Serie A tempo away from home is a very different task. Alessandro Diamanti can bring energy as a new coach, but this is still a developing project. Away at Sassuolo, their first job will be staying compact and breaking Sassuolo’s rhythm.

Cesena’s biggest summer loss is Tommaso Berti, who left for Cremonese for around €2.7m. Calò and Vrioni also left, reducing squad depth. Their arrivals look more like Serie B-level depth additions rather than signings that close the quality gap against Sassuolo. Shpendi can be dangerous in transitions, but the main match picture still points toward Sassuolo control.

For Sassuolo, Ismaël Koné is the most important absence because of his midfield dynamism, ball-carrying and intensity. Walukiewicz affects defensive depth, while Bakola and Yeferson Paz are more rotational losses. Cesena have no confirmed key absence at the moment, although the official starting XI will matter, especially if Diamanti rotates.

Niccolò Turrini is the referee. Based on the provided profile, he is not an extreme card-heavy official. His Serie B yellow-card average is around 3.1–3.3 per match, while his Coppa Italia sample is closer to 1.5 yellow cards per match. For this game, the strongest angle is not cards. The main logic is Sassuolo’s quality advantage, home pressure and the match script reaching at least two goals.

The conditions also suit Sassuolo. MAPEI Stadium is a good natural-grass Serie A venue, and Reggio Emilia should have dry evening weather with light wind and no major rain issue. That favors the more technical and better ball-playing side. On a normal surface, Sassuolo can express their quality better, especially in wide areas and around the final third.

Note

Our free pick is usually selected for the biggest and most popular match of the day. This does not necessarily mean it is our strongest value bet, as our best opportunities are typically reserved for VIP members. However, every free selection is researched with the same professional approach and analytical standards. We always aim to provide the most optimal betting angle for the day’s headline matchup while delivering high-quality analysis to all readers.