UFC Fight Night 278 Predictions

Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim

In our opinion, Belal Muhammad is one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC. He has an excellent work rate, strong wrestling, and over longer fights his cardio, discipline, and constant pressure become extremely valuable weapons. In this matchup, the level of opposition is also a major factor. Belal has already proven himself against much higher-quality opponents, while Gabriel Bonfim has not yet faced truly elite fighters at their peak.

Bonfim is talented, but we believe he is overrated at this stage. In combat sports, records alone do not tell the full story. It is not only about how many wins or losses a fighter has, but also who those results came against and what level of performance they showed in those fights. Based on Belal’s experience, pace, wrestling, and five-round ability, we believe he should win this fight fairly comfortably.

Pick: Belal Muhammad to win

Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan

This is a very interesting physical matchup because both fighters are athletic, strong, and dangerous. There is not a huge overall gap between them, but defensively Brendan Allen looks like the more reliable fighter.

There is a common misconception about Shahbazyan that he simply cannot take shots. We do not fully agree with that. The bigger issue is a defensive habit that has been built into his game since a young age: when he uses one hand, the other hand often drops. Because of that, whenever opponents counter or catch him during exchanges, they often land clean. This is not necessarily something that remains because his coaches do not understand the problem. It is more about deep habits. Under real fight pressure, the brain often goes back to the earliest patterns it learned. That is one of the reasons why it is difficult to see Shahbazyan consistently reaching the true elite “A-level” category.

We expect a very tough and dangerous fight early, but overall Allen’s more complete and more stable style should be enough to get the win.

Pick: Brendan Allen to win

Upset Pick: Iwo Baraniewski vs Junior Tafa

Neither fighter looks like a world-changing talent, but at this price we see value on Junior Tafa. Tafa showed some improvement in his last fight, especially in defending takedowns at times, and among the Tafa brothers he looks like the one who is actually training seriously and trying to improve.

Iwo, on the other hand, seems to show the same problems fight after fight. He has good physical tools, but there has not been much visible development. Unless he changes team, moves into a better training environment, or goes to the United States for higher-level preparation, he may simply end up having a few more 50-50 fights before returning to a KSW-level scene.

Tafa is the better striker, and Iwo’s wrestling does not look strong enough to reliably neutralize that advantage. At odds above 3.00, we believe Tafa is the right side.

Pick: Junior Tafa to win

Additional Picks

Fares Ziam vs Tom Nolan — Ziam wins
Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna — Bryce Mitchell wins
Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa — Alessandro Costa wins
Marcus McGhee vs John Yannis — Marcus McGhee wins
Bruno Silva vs Edgar Chairez — Edgar Chairez wins
Jordan Leavitt vs Joanderson Brito — Jordan Leavitt wins