Pick 1: Nottingham Forest double chance (X2 – Nottingham Forest or Draw)
Pick 2: Nottingham Forest Over 3.5 Shots on Target
Reasoning
Wolves are effectively bottom of the league in attack:
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Only 0.5 goals per match (20th).
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11.9 xG (19th).
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Just 3.1 shots on target per game (17th).
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Only 12 big chances all season (20th) and 6 missed – they rarely even reach real scoring positions.
Their presence in the final third is mediocre-to-poor: 282 touches in the opposition box (16th) and only 40 corners (19th).
Defensively, the picture is also grim:
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2.2 goals conceded per match (20th – worst in the league).
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18.5 xG conceded (one of the worst values).
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29.9 clearances and 2.8 saves per match – they are under pressure a lot and frequently scrambling in their own box.
This combination – one of the weakest attacks plus one of the weakest defenses – is not a great recipe for reliable home wins.
Nottingham Forest, by comparison, score 1.0 goal per match (18th), which isn’t impressive, but their underlying metrics are significantly better than Wolves’:
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16.4 xG (12th) – clearly more and better-quality chances.
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4.1 shots on target per match (11th) – solid mid-table volume, enough to justify a 3.5 SOT line.
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21 big chances and 13 missed big chances.
Forest attack more and with greater danger than Wolves, something also reflected in their 307 touches in the opposition box (13th) and 71 corners (9th), both clearly superior to Wolves’ numbers.
In possession and build-up, Forest hold a slight edge: 50.4% possession vs Wolves’ 47.3%, and 372.8 accurate passes vs 328.8. They are not just a deep-sitting counter side; they can also sustain periods of control.
Defensively, Forest are still poor:
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1.7 goals conceded per match (15th).
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20.8 xG conceded (3rd worst in the league).
Hence we don’t force a classic under-goals angle – both defenses are vulnerable. However, given how weak Wolves are going forward and how much better Forest look in xG, SOT and box touches, the balance of probabilities leans towards Forest not losing.
So:
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Nottingham Forest X2 makes sense because Wolves struggle badly to score, while Forest consistently generate more shots and chances.
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Forest Over 3.5 Shots on Target is backed by their average of 4.1 SOT per match, Wolves’ poor defensive numbers (2.2 goals conceded, 18.5 xGC), and the fact that Wolves’ keeper faces 2.8 saves per game – meaning opponents routinely register decent shot volume.
The likely match pattern is a scrappy, low-quality attacking game from Wolves, with Forest producing the more frequent and higher-quality attempts. In that scenario, Forest to avoid defeat and Forest to hit 4+ shots on target fit together naturally with no logical contradiction.
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