Northern Ireland vs Hungary

UEFA Nations League – League B, Group 2, Round 2
Date: 2026.09.28 – 20:45 CET
Venue: Windsor Park, Belfast
Referee: Ricardo de Burgos Bengoetxea

Picks

1. Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 2.07

For Northern Ireland vs Hungary in the Nations League, my preferred pick is Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 2.07. The two teams have very different attacking routes, and that is exactly why the BTTS market is interesting. Hungary should control more possession and create through Szoboszlai and the wide areas, while Northern Ireland can attack Hungary through set pieces, long throws, crosses and second balls.

The group situation already gives this match major importance. Northern Ireland opened with a 1-0 win in Georgia, while Hungary lost 1-0 at home to Ukraine. Another Northern Irish win would put them on six points, while Hungary need to avoid another negative result to prevent an early gap in the group. Motivation should therefore be at maximum level for both sides.

Hungary’s attacking performance against Ukraine was not as poor as the result suggests. They had 57% possession and produced 17 shots, but only four were on target. The main issue was finishing rather than a complete lack of attacking activity. A similar pattern is expected in Belfast because Northern Ireland should defend deeper and allow Hungary more of the ball.

Hungary are missing two major attacking players. Barnabás Varga removes their strongest traditional centre-forward and aerial profile, while Roland Sallai’s absence takes away one of their best depth runners. Even so, Hungary still have clear routes to goal through Szoboszlai’s free role, Kerkez’s width on the left, Bolla’s forward runs and second-wave arrivals around the box.

Northern Ireland are also missing two extremely important defensive players. Daniel Ballard is one of their strongest centre-backs, especially in aerial defense and inside the penalty area. Conor Bradley is important both defensively and in transition. Losing both players weakens the home defensive structure and partly balances out Hungary’s attacking absences.

Without Varga, Hungary should not build their entire attack around high crosses. A better route is to move the Northern Irish block from side to side, use Kerkez and Bolla to create width, and then play low cutbacks toward Szoboszlai or midfield runners arriving from deeper positions. Without Ballard, the communication and positioning inside the Northern Irish back line can be tested much more aggressively.

At the other end, Northern Ireland’s attacking plan is a very uncomfortable matchup for Hungary. Their 39% possession in Georgia showed that they do not need to dominate the ball. Hume’s long throws, set pieces, crosses and late runs from Shea Charles and Isaac Price are all capable of creating dangerous situations.

That matters because Ukraine scored their winner against Hungary through a cross and header. Northern Ireland’s strongest attacking weapons target exactly that area. At Windsor Park, the physical pressure, long throws and set pieces give the home side a clear route to a goal.

The squad values strongly favor Hungary, around €209m compared to Northern Ireland’s €80m. However, that difference is slightly misleading because a large part of Hungary’s value comes from Szoboszlai and Kerkez. In team structure, home advantage and physical intensity, Northern Ireland can be much closer to Hungary than the raw market values suggest.

Northern Ireland’s win in Georgia gives them confidence, but it was not a dominant performance. Pierce Charles saved a penalty and the winning goal only arrived in the 99th minute. Hungary should have longer spells of possession and more opportunities to attack around the penalty area than Georgia did.

Hungary, however, cannot focus only on possession. Northern Ireland can create danger from very few attacks, so defending second balls, crosses and set pieces will be essential. The home side do not need a large number of chances to find the net.

This creates two different but compatible scoring routes. Hungary can score through possession, technical quality and overloads around Szoboszlai, while Northern Ireland can create through physical play, set pieces or direct transitions. The match does not need to become a completely open end-to-end game for both teams to score.

Hungary may also have a slight freshness advantage because Northern Ireland had to travel back from Tbilisi to Belfast. That can become more relevant late in the match if Hungary dominate possession for long periods and force the home block to move constantly.

Ricardo de Burgos Bengoetxea is the referee, averaging around 3.8 yellow cards and 22.8 fouls per match. He is not an extreme cards referee, and for this matchup the tactical contrast is more important than the disciplinary angle.

The weather should be good for football, with around 13°C, dry conditions and light wind expected. There is no meaningful weather disadvantage for either side.