Leeds United vs Tottenham Hotspur

Competition: Premier League
Kick-off: 12:30 GMT, local time | 12:30 UTC | 13:30 CET
Venue: Elland Road, Leeds
Referee: John Brooks – 49 yellow cards and 5 reds across 10 matches in all competitions this season
VAR: Tony Harrington
Expected weather: Around 10°C, cloudy with light winds and a chance of light rain
Pick: Double chance – Leeds or draw
Odds: 1.51

I am backing Leeds to take something from this match. Their low goals-conceded average, productive set pieces and ability to play directly give them a practical route to a result against Tottenham. I expect a close contest in which defending the penalty area, competing for second balls and handling dead-ball situations will carry considerable weight.

The key numbers behind my pick

Leeds’ defensive record provides the foundation.

Their average of 0.9 goals conceded is the third-lowest in the league. Alongside three clean sheets, goalkeeping has been an important part of that record, with Leeds averaging 3.7 saves per match.

I read that together with their 30.2 clearances per game. Leeds regularly have to defend close to their own goal, and I expect periods of that pressure here. Against Tottenham, protecting central spaces and dealing with the second ball after crosses will be essential.

Their average distance covered of 116.7 kilometres also reflects the work they put into matches. For this particular contest, I am looking at how that effort supports wide defensive cover, recovery runs and teammates receiving the ball after a turnover.

Tottenham’s possession needs to be connected to their finishing.

The visitors average 63% possession and 514.7 accurate passes per match, so I expect them to have more of the ball. Their five possession recoveries in the final third per game also mean Leeds will need to make good decisions when playing out.

That territorial presence has produced an average of 1.1 goals per match. Tottenham have missed 17 of their 22 big chances, while their 4.4 shots on target per game represent a relatively small advantage over Leeds’ 3.7.

The cumulative expected-goals figures are close too: Tottenham have generated 11.7 xG, compared with Leeds’ 11.2. I see those numbers as evidence that the scoreline can remain competitive even during longer spells of Tottenham possession.

Leeds’ longer passes offer a way through the pressure.

The hosts average 23.9 accurate long balls per match, the sixth-highest figure in the division. That gives them a useful option against Tottenham’s ability to regain possession high up the pitch.

Playing beyond the first line can move the contest towards aerial challenges and second balls. If Leeds retain those deliveries, they can bring supporting players forward and make Tottenham’s defenders turn towards their own goal.

Their 4.2 accurate crosses per match provide another attacking route once they reach the wide areas. Deliveries can find runners in the box, while blocked crosses can create corners and further opportunities to apply pressure.

Set pieces are a particularly relevant part of the matchup.

Leeds have scored four goals from set pieces and conceded only one. That record matters at both ends for my selection.

Tottenham lead the league with 71 corners, making Leeds’ defensive organisation from dead-ball situations especially important. At the other end, home corners and free kicks can create clear opportunities without requiring sustained possession.

In a close match, winning the first header, creating space through movement or reacting quickest to a loose ball can decide how the points are shared.

Team availability will also shape the contest.

Rodon has returned to full training and could rejoin Leeds’ matchday squad. Okafor and Stach remain doubts, while Farke is cautiously optimistic about Calvert-Lewin following a foot issue. Tottenham remain without Mudryk, with Sávio’s return still unresolved.

Spurs arrive after three consecutive league wins. Leeds have drawn three of their last five league matches, and a similarly tight outcome is central to this double-chance selection.

My pick is Leeds or draw at 1.51. Their defending around goal, set-piece record and options to play beyond Tottenham’s pressure form the basis of my approach. I expect Leeds to keep at least one point at Elland Road.