The UFC returns to Madison Square Garden on November 14 with two championship fights. Ciryl Gane defends his heavyweight title against unbeaten challenger Josh Hokit, while Kayla Harrison faces the returning Amanda Nunes in the co-main event. Throughout the card, the ability to connect striking with wrestling could determine who leaves New York with a victory.
Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit
Prediction: Josh Hokit to win
I’m backing Josh Hokit to become the new heavyweight champion. His wrestling, physicality and ability to punch his way into close range give him a clear route to victory. The challenge is to close the distance consistently and make Gane spend more time defending takedowns, breaking grips and getting back to his feet.
Hokit has already beaten Curtis Blaydes by unanimous decision this year, then stopped Derrick Lewis in the second round. The Blaydes victory matters here: he has shown he can come through a difficult fight against an established heavyweight contender. Against Lewis, he proved he could find a finish while dealing with serious knockout power.
His first task against Gane is to cut off the exits. Hokit needs to move laterally and steer the champion toward the fence, limiting the space available after each exchange. Straight punches to the chest and short combinations to the body can help him reach a position where he can establish a grip around the hips.
That is where I see his wrestling making the difference. If Gane stops the first takedown, Hokit must change direction, adjust his grip and keep working with short strikes. Once on top, the priority is to restrict Gane’s hip movement before opening up with punches. Attempts to stand can then create opportunities to advance position or return him to the canvas.
Managing his energy over five rounds will be essential. Hokit needs to build his pace around productive entries because unsuccessful charges leave him exposed to Gane’s long punches and kicks. I want to see him create repeated stretches where the champion has to defend from a stationary position.
Hokit is my pick to win. His strongest finishing opportunity comes from a takedown sequence against the fence, followed by sustained ground-and-pound once he has secured a stable position.
Kayla Harrison vs. Amanda Nunes
Prediction: Kayla Harrison to win
Harrison is my choice in the second championship fight. Her route runs through the clinch and effective offense from top position. The key will be reaching that first grip safely, then connecting her clinch work with takedowns before Nunes can separate and reset.
She has submitted both Holly Holm and Julianna Peña in the UFC, with a decision victory over Ketlen Vieira between those wins. The kimura finish against Peña earned her the championship and highlighted how dangerous she becomes once she has an opponent pinned down and can methodically develop her attacks.
Her entries need careful preparation here. Punches and feints can draw a reaction from Nunes and create the opening to step inside. From there, inside grips, head position and control of Nunes’s balance will be crucial. Harrison has several throws and trips available once she establishes that connection.
On the ground, I see her advantage in controlling the hips and shoulders. Short punches can force Nunes to defend while Harrison advances. As Nunes creates space to stand, an arm may become isolated or a turn onto her side could expose the back. Harrison has the technical depth to recognize those openings and follow them through.
Nunes has not competed since June 2023, but Harrison has also been away for an extended period, with their originally scheduled January fight postponed because she required neck surgery. My pick is therefore built around the matchup itself: Harrison’s ability to repeatedly create close-range positions from which she can attack effectively.
I’m backing Harrison to retain her title through her work on the ground. If she consistently shuts down Nunes’s attempts to stand, a submission is a realistic outcome.
Caio Borralho vs. Yousri Belgaroui
Prediction: Caio Borralho to win
Borralho’s more complete MMA game gives him the edge. Belgaroui’s reach and high-level kickboxing make prepared entries particularly important. Caio can draw out a combination with his movement, then change levels as Belgaroui plants his feet to finish the exchange.The Brazilian most recently defeated Reinier de Ridder by decision. A similarly patient approach should serve him well here: assess the reactions at range, establish the clinch and increase his offensive output once the fight reaches the ground. He needs to follow Belgaroui’s stand-up attempts with further attacks while making his top control productive through strikes. Borralho has more ways to take command of the contest, and I’m picking him to win.
Uroš Medić vs. Kevin Holland
Prediction: Kevin Holland to win
Holland’s reach, straight punches and submission threats put me on his side. Medić arrives in excellent form, having stopped Daniel Rodriguez and Geoff Neal in the first round of his last two appearances. Holland needs to be moving from the opening bell and leave at an angle after his combinations.He beat Randy Brown by decision last time out and previously submitted Vicente Luque with a D’Arce choke. Against Medić, his long punches can meet the forward entries, while unsettled exchanges may give him opportunities to move into the clinch or attack a submission. I see Holland’s counters and additional options on the ground making the difference.
Bilal Hasan vs. Luis Gurule
Prediction: Bilal Hasan to win
Hasan’s speed, variety and finishing ability make him my choice. He knocked out Nilson Rojas in the second round of his UFC debut and has earned eight of his ten professional victories by knockout or TKO. Combinations set up with kicks should be particularly effective against Gurule.Hasan can alternate between the head and body, then reset his distance before Gurule returns fire or changes levels. That gives him opportunities to build offense without becoming predictable. I anticipate Hasan landing increasingly clean shots and following up quickly when he breaks through the defense. He is my pick, with a stoppage a strong possibility.
Stephen Thompson vs. Charles Radtke
Prediction: Charles Radtke to win
Radtke’s wrestling and close-range work give him the clearest path. Thompson is most comfortable when he has room for his footwork and long kicks. Radtke needs to gradually take that space away, establish a body lock against the fence and chain his takedown attempts together.He relied heavily on his grappling to beat Francisco Prado in his last appearance. That approach makes sense again here. When Thompson gets back up, Radtke must disrupt his balance and make him defend another attack. On the canvas, short punches will help turn control into meaningful offense. I’m backing Radtke to force enough of those exchanges to win the rounds.
Drew Dober vs. Chris Duncan
Prediction: Chris Duncan to win
Duncan can connect a wider range of attacks in the clinch and on the ground. Dober’s punching power makes the preparation before each entry essential: short combinations can lead into level changes, followed by continued wrestling against the fence.The Scotsman submitted Terrance McKinney with an anaconda choke and finished both Jordan Vucenic and Bolaji Oki with guillotines. Those threats could appear as Dober tries to stand and briefly leaves his neck or an arm exposed. Duncan lost his most recent fight to Renato Moicano, making secure positioning and protection of his own back especially important. His ability to link striking with grappling should carry him to victory.
Jim Miller vs. Terrance McKinney
Prediction: Terrance McKinney to win
McKinney’s explosive start and finishing instincts are the reasons I’m backing him. All eighteen of his professional wins have come inside the distance, seventeen in the first round. Accurate entries and short, powerful combinations can help him make the most of his speed against Miller.He still needs a balanced stance at the end of each attack because Miller can create danger during scrambles. When McKinney hurts him, the follow-up needs to be decisive and controlled. Rushing into an uncertain ground exchange would give Miller an opening. I see McKinney finding the decisive connection early and finishing the fight in the opening round.
Macy Chiasson vs. Beatriz Mesquita
Prediction: Beatriz Mesquita to win
Mesquita’s ground technique and precision during positional changes make her my pick. Chiasson is taller and longer, so the Brazilian needs to set up her entries before closing the distance. Once she gets a grip, control of the hips and well-timed off-balancing can produce the takedown.Mesquita has submitted Irina Alekseeva and Montserrat Rendon with rear-naked chokes in the UFC, then finished Melissa Mullins with an armbar. Her ability to move from one attacking position to the next is the difference I see here. Chiasson turning to stand could expose her back; extending her arms to create space may open another submission. I’m taking Mesquita, most likely by submission.
Adrian Yanez vs. Juan Diaz
Prediction: Juan Diaz to win
Diaz’s wrestling can repeatedly interrupt Yanez’s boxing rhythm. The Peruvian submitted Malcolm Wellmaker with a second-round rear-naked choke in his UFC debut. Setting up takedowns with punches and attacking the attempts to stand offer him a strong route again here.Yanez is dangerous in the pocket, so Diaz needs to move into the clinch or angle away after short exchanges. Against the fence, he can change grips and directions until a takedown becomes available. From top position, strikes should help him advance and create further threats. Diaz can steer enough of the fight into those positions to get the win.
Donte Johnson vs. Cesar Almeida
Prediction: Donte Johnson to win
Johnson’s explosiveness and power in short exchanges put me on his side. He knocked out Eric McConico in the first round last time out, having previously shown he could complete three rounds and beat Cody Brundage. Timing his entries will be crucial against Almeida’s high-level kickboxing.Feints and attacks to the body can prevent Almeida from comfortably setting up longer combinations. Once Johnson closes the distance, short punches and clinch work can keep Almeida occupied. The decisive opening could come as Almeida finishes an attack and has yet to regain his stance. Johnson is my pick, with a knockout or TKO a realistic finish.
Jared Gordon vs. Melquizael Costa
Prediction: Melquizael Costa to win
Costa’s varied striking and options in the grappling exchanges make him my choice. Against Gordon’s wrestling, he needs to launch his kicks from the right distance and recover his stance quickly. Body attacks can also make Gordon work before he gets close enough to establish his grips.Costa knocked out Dan Ige this year before losing a five-round decision to Arnold Allen. Against Gordon, the strikes immediately after breaking a grip could be especially valuable. If Costa makes each separation count, Gordon will have a harder time starting the next takedown attempt cleanly. I’m backing Costa’s sharper striking and ability to threaten during transitions to secure the victory.
Evan Elder vs. Samuel Sanches
Prediction: Samuel Sanches to win
Sanches’s quick combinations and ability to change targets within a sequence make him my pick. On the Contender Series, he knocked out Chasen Blair in the first round after escaping a difficult grappling position and immediately returning to his offense on the feet.Against Elder, the third and fourth punches in his combinations could make the difference. Switching between the head and body can force Elder to make multiple defensive adjustments in the same exchange. Sanches also needs to exit laterally after those sequences because Elder is comfortable trading combinations at close range himself. I’m picking Sanches to win, with a TKO created by sustained combinations a realistic outcome.
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Analysis resources used:
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