PFL Dubai: Nemkov vs. Bilostenniy | Full Card Predictions

Vadim Nemkov vs. Sergey Bilostenniy
I’m backing Nemkov in the heavyweight title fight. This goes beyond his championship pedigree: what stands out is how effectively he connects his striking, takedowns and ground game. His title-winning performance against Renan Ferreira demonstrated that he does not need to rely on punching power alone at heavyweight. Positional progression and submission threats are equally important parts of his approach.

Bilostenniy cannot be reduced to a single threat. Alongside his finishes over Ferreira and Karl Williams, his PFL record includes a heel-hook victory, so treating him as nothing more than a heavy-handed challenger would be a mistake. Nevertheless, Nemkov’s versatility and experience at the highest level give him the edge in my assessment. He does not have to be faster or stronger in every exchange. Making better decisions about when to strike and when to establish a grip can be enough.

On the feet, I expect short combinations, feints and disciplined exits from Nemkov. Rather than engaging in prolonged exchanges, his best approach is to attack in ways that force Bilostenniy to reset his defence. Those reactions can create opportunities to enter the clinch and pursue takedowns. Once the fight reaches the ground, I favour secure top position, measured ground strikes and submission opportunities created by the challenger’s attempts to stand up, rather than rushing the finish.

Their shared connection to Team Fedor adds another interesting dimension, particularly as they have previously trained together. That familiarity does not automatically favour either fighter, but it makes adaptability even more important. Across five rounds, Nemkov does not need to settle everything with his first meaningful attack. I expect him to give Bilostenniy increasingly complicated defensive problems before taking control through takedowns and productive ground work. His more complete, structured approach gives him several credible routes to retaining the title.
Pick: Vadim Nemkov to win.

Patrick Habirora vs. Omar El Dafrawy
Habirora’s explosive entries and decisive finishing ability are the main reasons I’m backing him. He knocked out Benson Henderson in twenty seconds and has finished eight of his nine professional victories. A quick knockout does not answer every tactical question, but it illustrates how little room he leaves an opponent to recover from a poor reaction. Against El Dafrawy, I want to see him resist the temptation to force an immediate finish. Movement and shorter attacks can create cleaner opportunities for his heavier shots. Discipline will matter, especially when he finishes his own combinations. Habirora can make his advantages count by forcing the Egyptian to keep adjusting to sudden changes of pace. I expect those explosive bursts to produce the more damaging exchanges and ultimately carry the Belgian to victory.
Pick: Patrick Habirora to win.

Oleg Popov vs. Pouya Rahmani
Popov’s experience against established heavyweight opposition is the biggest factor in this matchup. Rahmani has a serious wrestling and grappling background, and his submission victory over Karl Williams makes it clear that taking him down is not a complete game plan by itself. The more important question is who handles the transitions better: following up unsuccessful takedowns, reversing positions against the fence and attacking as the fighters separate. Popov defeated Karl Williams and Rodrigo Nascimento during the 2025 tournament before overcoming Alexandr Romanov in the final. Experience from those demanding assignments should be particularly valuable here. I expect a competitive, physical contest rather than an easy night. Popov’s patience and ability to operate between different ranges give him the edge when the exchanges become more complicated.
Pick: Oleg Popov to win.

Saygid Izagakhmaev vs. David Martinez
I see wrestling pressure as the foundation of an Izagakhmaev victory. His best scenario is one in which Martinez cannot settle into extended stretches of unrestricted striking because he must constantly account for grips and takedowns. Cutting off the cage should therefore be more useful than launching spectacular shots from too far away. From the fence, Izagakhmaev can link his attempts together before making top position productive with ground strikes. He accepted this fight on short notice, which makes a straightforward approach built around familiar techniques particularly sensible. I’m not expecting him to maintain the same frantic pace throughout. Instead, I favour controlled pressure, purposeful clinch entries and steady positional progression. That gives Izagakhmaev the clearer route to imposing his game and winning the fight.
Pick: Saygid Izagakhmaev to win.

Sergio Pettis vs. Joji Goto
Timing and experience are the qualities that put Pettis ahead for me. The former Bellator champion’s best approach is to avoid rushed attacks and make Goto work against an organised defence. Short, accurate combinations and well-timed responses to the opponent’s entries can provide the foundation for his performance. Landing is only part of the equation: Pettis also needs to finish each attack balanced and ready to deal with the next exchange. I’m not necessarily expecting him to overwhelm Goto with relentless offence. His advantage should come from recognising the right moments, winning the closer exchanges and landing the cleaner shots. If he maintains that discipline, he can build a performance that is more convincing to the judges without needing to chase a spectacular finish.
Pick: Sergio Pettis to win.

Lewis McGrillen-Evans vs. Nawras Abzakh
McGrillen-Evans is my choice here. His attacking mentality and punching pressure give him a strong platform to dictate the action. In August, he earned a unanimous decision over Brandon Lewis after a demanding three-round contest, showing that his latest success was not dependent on a single decisive punch. Against Abzakh, the priority should be to close off escape routes rather than simply follow him around the cage. He also needs to finish combinations without remaining exposed in front of his opponent. Working the body can help open the defence instead of forcing every attack upstairs. I expect McGrillen-Evans to provide more of the initiative and land the more consequential shots. His pressure becomes most convincing when it is accompanied by accuracy, and that combination is why I’m backing him.
Pick: Lewis McGrillen-Evans to win.

Connor Hughes vs. Shaqueme Rock
The opportunities available to Hughes in the striking exchanges are what decide my pick. Constant forward movement should not be the objective. More important is ensuring that his own attacks do not give Rock an easy connection to his grappling game. I would build Hughes’ approach around short combinations, clear changes of direction and disciplined distance management. Rather than overcommitting to kicks, he should prioritise attacks that allow him to recover his position quickly. His head-kick victory over Kevin van Steenis in 2025 showed that he can turn a well-timed opportunity into a decisive moment. Here, however, restraint will be just as important as finishing ability. I expect Hughes to do the better work on the feet and break off unfavourable grappling exchanges before Rock can develop them.
Pick: Connor Hughes to win.

Alexei Pergande vs. Akhmed Magomedov
Pergande moves to lightweight, and I’m backing him to make a successful start in the division. His victory over Julio Arce demonstrated that he can win a difficult, competitive fight rather than relying exclusively on early finishes. Distance management should be central against Magomedov. Pergande can use his longer reach through straight punches and well-chosen exits, making his opponent work to establish a grip instead of allowing straightforward entries. If the fight does reach the ground, I would prioritise the first available opportunity to stand rather than chase a risky submission from underneath. Moving up in weight is not automatically an advantage. My selection rests on Pergande’s varied offence and the competitive performance he delivered against Arce. With disciplined, active work, I see a realistic path to another victory.
Pick: Alexei Pergande to win.

Ádám Borics vs. Khasan Magomedsharipov
Magomedsharipov gets my vote because of his ability to connect different attacking threats. He returned with a first-round arm-triangle submission over Joshua Weems, and the threat of a takedown could also play an important role in restricting Borics’ striking. Borics is a technical opponent with proven experience at a high level, so this is not a selection based simply on an unbeaten record or a familiar surname. Magomedsharipov’s best approach is to interrupt the striking exchanges with clinch entries and work against the fence, preventing Borics from settling comfortably into his preferred rhythm. Takedowns set up by punches, followed by productive ground work, can make the difference. I expect Khasan to create more of those connected sequences and turn them into the stronger overall performance.
Pick: Khasan Magomedsharipov to win.

Denis Goltsov vs. Maxwell Djantou Nana
Goltsov is my choice because his game gives him options in several different phases. He stopped Hasan Mezhiev with a head kick and punches in the opening round in August, while his sambo-based grappling presents a different set of problems. That combination matters against Djantou Nana: Goltsov should avoid becoming predictable either as a distance striker or as someone looking only for takedowns. Rather than remaining in extended exchanges, he can favour attacks that leave him well positioned to strike again or establish a grip. On the ground, maintaining position and adding punches can build a meaningful advantage. I’m not backing him solely because he has the longer record. His relatively broad heavyweight skill set and ability to transition between ranges are the more important factors.
Pick: Denis Goltsov to win.

Ernesto Rodriguez vs. Rhys McKee
Rodriguez’s wrestling-based approach gives him the edge in my assessment. Against McKee, I would avoid prolonged exchanges at distance, using shorter attacks to close the gap before pursuing takedowns against the fence. Rodriguez has wrestled since childhood, and his PFL victory over Masayuki Kikuiri is a more useful reference point for me than his subsequent defeat to Thad Jean in a short-notice title opportunity. Repeated takedown threats can influence this matchup even when individual attempts fail, because McKee must adjust his striking reactions accordingly. Rodriguez still needs to turn those grips into meaningful offence: pressing an opponent against the fence is not a substitute for effective attacking work. Top position supported by ground strikes offers his clearest route to winning rounds. That is the basis of my prediction for a Rodriguez decision victory.
Pick: Ernesto Rodriguez to win.

Khabib Nabiev vs. Styve Ngono Essono
Nabiev’s ability to develop attacks from the clinch is the main reason I’m backing him. Against Ahmed Sami, he showed that the first takedown attempt does not have to succeed for him to take control. He worked against the fence, renewed his attacks and eventually reached the finish through punches and an elbow from top position. I expect the same connected approach against Ngono Essono. Rather than reaching for the legs from distance without preparation, he should enter behind his punches and remain offensive throughout the grip exchanges. Once on the ground, the objective must be more than keeping his opponent down: he needs to produce the more effective offence. Nabiev has a clear, repeatable approach available in this matchup. His positional progression and ground strikes are what I expect to separate the two.
Pick: Khabib Nabiev to win.

Aleksandra Savicheva vs. Jacinta Austin
Austin is my selection in this matchup. She made her PFL debut with a first-round knockout, while Savicheva most recently earned a split decision over Andrea Vazquez. Those two results alone do not establish a direct ranking between them. My prediction is built more around a fight in which Austin combines initiative with meaningful scoring shots. Short combinations, changes of target between the body and head, and movement after attacking can help prevent Savicheva from finding comfortable countering opportunities. The deciding factor may be who finishes the closer stretches of action more convincingly. Austin is the fighter I expect to produce more of the noticeable, effective sequences that allow the judges to distinguish between otherwise competitive rounds. I anticipate a closely contested fight, with the Australian doing enough to win.
Pick: Jacinta Austin to win.