Reasoning:

Bodø/Glimt dominate the Norwegian league with the best offensive stats: 2.6 goals per match, 63.4% possession, 6.4 shots on target per game and a huge 45.2 xG overall. They create more big chances than anyone (68) but also waste a lot (37 missed). Defensively they concede only 0.9 goals per match, yet their style often leaves them open, with opponents still creating decent opportunities. At home they are extremely strong, generating high corner counts (145 – 2nd in the league).

Sturm Graz started well in Austria: averaging 2 goals per match, producing the most big chances (13) and hitting 6.7 shots on target per game. Defensively they are stable (1 goal conceded per game, 4.9 xG conceded) and excel in duels, topping the league in successful tackles (15.7 per game). Their main weakness is finishing efficiency, with 10 big chances wasted already.

The match will likely see Bodø pressing high and controlling possession, while Sturm Graz look for physical duels and counterattacks. Goals are very likely from both sides, given their attacking power and defensive vulnerabilities.

Referee Sandro Schärer tends to be strict in European matches, so cards could also play a role in such a physical clash.

Overall, this is set up as an open, attacking contest with plenty of goalmouth action. The best value lies in goals and corners.

Statistical table (domestic league)