Main Pick: Botafogo RJ to win
By reader request – for those who like to bet on more options! But I always recommend the Main Pick.
Second Pick: Botafogo RJ over 1.5 team goals
Special Pick: Corinthians to receive more yellow cards
Reasoning:
Fixture: Serie A – Round 17
Venue: Estádio Olímpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro
Referee: Pereira R. (Brazil)
Botafogo are one of the strongest home teams in the league, especially defensively, with just 0.5 goals conceded per match and 9 clean sheets. Corinthians, on the other hand, are struggling in attack with only 0.9 goals per game and just 3.3 shots on target per match (17th in the league). Despite having the 2nd highest average possession (58%), Corinthians fail to convert it into clear chances – they rank 17th in touches inside the opposition box.
Botafogo also lead in key stats such as big chances, shots on target, and overall defensive solidity. Playing at home, with stronger form and more efficiency in both boxes, they are favorites to win. Furthermore, Corinthians are the most booked team in the league with 49 yellow cards.
Team Stats – Botafogo RJ vs Corinthians (Serie A 2025)
| Stat Category | Botafogo RJ | Corinthians |
|---|---|---|
| FotMob Rating (Avg.) | 7.02 (3rd) | 6.79 (11th) |
| Goals per Match | 1.2 (6th) | 0.9 (13th) |
| Goals Conceded per Match | 0.5 (2nd) | 1.2 (13th) |
| Average Possession | 51.3% (8th) | 58.0% (2nd) |
| Clean Sheets | 9 (2nd) | 6 (5th) |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 18.1 (9th) | 18.4 (8th) |
| xG Conceded | 13.2 (17th = best) | 20.1 (6th) |
| Shots on Target per Match | 5.3 (2nd) | 3.3 (17th) |
| Big Chances Created | 29 (6th) | 29 (7th) |
| Big Chances Missed | 23 (2nd) | 18 (10th) |
| Accurate Passes per Match | 388.3 (7th) | 442.8 (2nd) |
| Accurate Long Balls per Match | 27.6 (2nd) | 31.1 (1st) |
| Accurate Crosses per Match | 5.4 (4th) | 3.5 (19th) |
| Touches in Opponent’s Box | 346 (2nd) | 248 (17th) |
| Corners Taken | 63 (17th) | 74 (10th) |
| Penalties Awarded | 1 (12th) | 2 (11th) |
| Interceptions per Match | 7.1 (17th) | 8.4 (7th) |
| Successful Tackles per Match | 10.6 (9th) | 10.0 (17th) |
| Clearances per Match | 21.7 (18th) | 18.8 (19th) |
| Possession Won – Final 3rd (per match) | 3.2 (11th) | 2.5 (20th) |
| Saves per Match | 2.9 (11th) | 2.5 (15th) |
| Fouls per Match | 14.0 (8th) | 13.8 (10th) |
| Yellow Cards | 30 (16th = fewest) | 49 (1st = most) |
| Red Cards | 1 (13th) | – |
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Resources Used for Betting Analysis:
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