Main Pick: Under 2.5 goals
By reader request – for those who like to bet on more options! But I always recommend the Main Pick.
Second Pick: Sarpsborg 08 or Draw
Special Pick: Sarpsborg 08 – Most Corners
Reasoning:
Sarpsborg 08 are one of the most balanced teams in the league this season, especially at home. Statistically, they rank 2nd in FotMob rating and concede just 0.9 goals per game—on par with Rosenborg. Offensively, they are ahead: more shots on target per match, more big chances, higher xG (25.3 vs 23.1), and the highest number of accurate crosses in the league (6.8 per game).
Rosenborg, while defensively solid, struggle in attack with only 1.1 goals per match and a worrying number of missed big chances (26). Their long balls and crosses are also poor, ranking among the lowest. Despite a good possession average, they struggle to convert it into effective attacks.
Sarpsborg’s dominance on the wings and superior crossing often leads to more corners, where they consistently rank high. Rosenborg may be difficult to break down, but Sarpsborg’s home advantage, creativity, and defensive stability give them a strong edge.
Expect a low-scoring match, with Sarpsborg taking at least a point.
Stat Table
| Metric | Sarpsborg 08 | Rosenborg |
|---|---|---|
| FotMob rating | 7.08 (2nd) | 6.95 (7th) |
| Goals per match | 1.6 (6th) | 1.1 (14th) |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 (2nd) | 0.9 (3rd) |
| xG | 25.3 (4th) | 23.1 (6th) |
| xG conceded | 17.2 (11th) | 17.7 (10th) |
| Shots on target per match | 5.5 (4th) | 4.4 (8th) |
| Big chances | 38 (5th) | 41 (4th) |
| Big chances missed | 22 (5th) | 26 (3rd) |
| Possession | 50.9% (7th) | 54.8% (3rd) |
| Accurate passes per match | 392.4 (5th) | 415.9 (4th) |
| Accurate crosses per match | 6.8 (1st) | 4.1 (15th) |
| Sarpsborg corners | 77 (6th) | 100 (3rd) |
| Possession won final 3rd | 3.8 (8th) | 4.0 (4th) |
| Yellow cards | 16 (15th) | 28 (2nd) |
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