Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland

This matchup could end up being far more competitive than many people expect. Khamzat Chimaev is unquestionably one of the most dangerous wrestlers in MMA, but his overall submission game and finishing ability on the ground are not quite as dominant as many fans believe. We saw that clearly against Dricus du Plessis, where he secured multiple takedowns but created very limited real danger outside of a crucifix position.

A lot of people believe Chimaev’s cardio issues are now fixed, but in reality he simply fought at a slower and more controlled pace than usual. Part of that was stylistic. Du Plessis offers very little lateral movement and reacts much slower defensively in wrestling exchanges compared to someone like Sean Strickland. Even then, Chimaev still looked uncomfortable physically by the fifth round.

One of Strickland’s biggest strengths is his composure under pressure. His bladed stance is significantly more effective defensively against wrestling compared to fighters like Du Plessis or Robert Whittaker. From that stance he can use his hips more efficiently, apply counter pressure better, and react more naturally to takedown attempts.

Chimaev will almost certainly secure takedowns at some point, but the key difference is likely to be the positions they land in. Strickland should arrive in more favorable defensive positions, allowing him to get back to his feet faster and forcing Chimaev to spend far more energy controlling him.

The overall dynamic of this fight could resemble the classic Gilbert Burns vs Kamaru Usman fight, but stretched over five rounds. Chimaev will constantly pressure forward, while Strickland’s lateral movement and awkward stance — similar to what we saw against Anthony Hernandez — could create difficult situations for the wrestler.

Wrestlers generally perform better when opponents move in straight lines because timing entries becomes easier. Strickland’s constant angles and lateral movement could disrupt that rhythm throughout the fight.

We expect a close and physically demanding contest where Strickland begins to take over from the third round onward.

Prediction: Sean Strickland to win
Special Pick: Total points of all judges (Decision) — Strickland over 135.5

Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira

Joshua Van may currently hold the title, but it is fair to say he benefited from circumstance when he won it, as Alexandre Pantoja suffered a serious elbow injury within the opening 30 seconds of their fight.

Meanwhile, Tatsuro Taira rebounded from a close loss against Brandon Royval by defeating Sung Park and then former champion and living legend Brandon Moreno. Most importantly, his striking has shown major development recently.

Taira is physically massive for the division, applies excellent pressure, and has now evolved into a dangerous fighter both on the feet and on the ground. Joshua Van is undoubtedly an elite striker, but he often fights too openly and sometimes prioritizes entertaining exchanges over tactical discipline.

Eventually, that style comes with consequences. The lighter weight classes are brutal over time, and constant wars accumulate damage quickly. Brandon Moreno is a perfect example — despite being only 32 years old, years of high-level wars have clearly taken a toll on him.

Van has already struggled against physically similar opponents before. In his loss against Charles Johnson, he got drawn into an unnecessary firefight and was eventually caught with an uppercut.

The issue with Van’s style is that while it is extremely exciting, it is difficult to sustain long-term dominance at championship level fighting that way. Taira is likely to gradually break him down by constantly mixing takedown threats, feints, and long punching combinations.

One of the most dangerous aspects of Taira’s game is how effectively he uses feints with both his hands and legs. It forces opponents into hesitation and makes finding rhythm extremely difficult.

Overall, we expect a controlled and relatively comfortable victory for Tatsuro Taira.

Prediction: Tatsuro Taira to win
Special Pick: Fight starts Round 3

Quick Picks

Alexander Volkov vs Mario Pinto Acosta — Acosta wins
Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley — Brady wins
Bobby Green vs Jeremy Stephens — Green wins
Morgan Charriere Gautier vs Osman Diaz — Gautier wins
Joel Alvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov — Amosov wins
Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki — Rebecki wins
Jim Miller vs Jared Gordon — Gordon wins
Roman Kopylov vs Tulio Cesar — Tulio wins
Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis — Gomis wins
Susurkaev vs Lucas Santos — Susurkaev wins
Carpenter vs Ochoa — Ochoa wins

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Resources Used for Betting Analysis:
Football: Footmob, Footystats, Soccerstats, Windrawwin,Opta,Statsbomb
Esports: Lolfandom
MMA/Boxing: FightDX,Sherdog,Tapology,Boxrec,oddschecker

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