UFC 329 Predictions

Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway

Pick: Max Holloway to win
Odds: 1.50

Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway would be a massive fight in terms of name value, but from a technical perspective, we clearly lean toward Holloway. McGregor turns 38 on July 14, and he has not competed in MMA for around five years since suffering that serious leg injury. That alone creates major questions, especially in a sport where timing, reaction speed, explosiveness, and fight rhythm are all crucial.

Even in his prime, McGregor was always at his most dangerous early. His left hand, timing, and explosiveness were elite, but his cardio was never perfect, even at his peak. In a five-round fight, that becomes an even bigger concern now. At 38 years old, after a long layoff and a major injury, it is very difficult to imagine him showing the same sharpness, speed, and movement that made him special during the best years of his career.

On top of that, the lifestyle concerns around McGregor cannot be ignored. Years away from consistent elite-level competition, combined with a lifestyle that has involved alcohol, drugs, and poor discipline, almost certainly affects reaction time, dynamics, explosiveness, and overall conditioning.

Max Holloway, on the other hand, is still one of the best pace fighters in the sport. He may no longer be at his absolute peak, but he still throws a huge amount of volume, has elite cardio, can absorb shots, moves well on the feet, and is taller than McGregor. Holloway’s style is difficult for Conor because he is not a stationary target. He keeps moving, builds combinations, puts constant volume on opponents, and as the rounds go on, he forces them to fight at a pace they often cannot sustain.

Their first fight is not very relevant at this point. Holloway was extremely young back then and was nowhere near the fighter he later became. The current version of Holloway is far more experienced, more mature, and much better at managing long fights.

Early in the fight, McGregor will probably try to destroy him. He can still be dangerous in the opening round because of his timing and power, so he cannot be completely dismissed. However, if Holloway survives that early storm with movement, footwork, and disciplined defense, the fight should gradually shift in his favor. From there, Holloway can start breaking Conor down with volume, pace, and constant pressure, while McGregor may begin to fade physically and mentally.

Overall, our pick is Holloway to win. McGregor’s name is still huge, but there are too many negative factors around him now: age, long inactivity, returning after a serious injury, lifestyle concerns, possible decline in explosiveness, and the five-round cardio issue. Holloway is not perfect, but in this matchup, his pace, conditioning, volume, height, and footwork make him the much more reliable side.

Benoit Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett

Pick: Paddy Pimblett to win
Odds: 2.10

Benoit Saint Denis vs Paddy Pimblett is a very interesting matchup, but defensively it is also a highly dangerous one. Both fighters have very poor defensive habits, so this fight should create dangerous moments on both sides. Even with that risk, we lean toward Paddy Pimblett.

Paddy is faster, tougher, and in our opinion he has better tools both on the feet and on the ground. His defense is far from perfect, but his offensive game is more varied, and he transitions better between striking, clinch work, and grappling situations. That could be very important against Saint Denis, who is physically tough but often comes forward too openly and with his upper body leaning in.

That style can be especially dangerous against Pimblett because Paddy has brutal knees. Saint Denis’ forward-leaning pressure can walk him straight into those attacks, especially if he tries to force the fight in straight lines. Pimblett can punish those entries not only with punches, but also with knees, clinch attacks, and transitional offense.

The three-round format should also favor Pimblett. In a shorter fight, he can maintain a high pace more comfortably, start aggressively, and does not need to manage his energy the same way he would over five rounds. Saint Denis is a very tough fighter, but he has not shown much real development over the last two or three years. He still brings many of the same problems: constant forward pressure, defensive openings, and a willingness to absorb too much damage.

Overall, this is not a risk-free pick because both fighters are defensively open and hittable. However, at odds of 2.10, we see value on Pimblett. He is faster, more versatile, better in transitions, and Saint Denis’ style may give him several openings that Paddy can punish.

Additional Picks

Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden — Alessandro Costa to win — Odds: 1.36
Ryan Gandra vs Zach Reese — Zach Reese to win — Odds: 2.08
Damian Pinas vs Cesar Almeida — Cesar Almeida to win — Odds: 2.66
Tracy Cortez vs Cong Wang — Cong Wang to win — Odds: 1.81
Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III — Luke Riley to win — Odds: 1.28
Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez — Adrian Yanez to win — Odds: 1.22
Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison — Gable Steveson to win — Odds: 1.03
Robert Whittaker vs Nikita Krylov — Nikita Krylov to win — Odds: 2.28
King Green vs Terrance McKinney — Terrance McKinney to win — Odds: 1.60
Loneer Kavanagh vs Brandon Royval — Loneer Kavanagh to win — Odds: 1.41
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista — Mario Bautista to win — Odds: 2.12