UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev – Full Card Predictions

The UFC returns to Abu Dhabi on October 24 with two world championship fights. Alexander Volkanovski defends his featherweight title against unbeaten challenger Movsar Evloev, while Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili meet for the third time, once again with the bantamweight championship on the line. Across several divisions, established contenders face rising prospects looking to take the next step.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev

Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski to win

I am backing Volkanovski in this championship matchup. My pick is built around his distance management, tactical adaptability and ability to connect his striking with his defensive wrestling. Against Evloev, a crucial factor will be who lands the cleaner shots between takedown attempts and who forces the other man into less favorable entries.

Volkanovski excels in this area. His lead hand, feints and short changes of direction constantly draw reactions from opponents. That should make it harder for Evloev to shoot without first creating an opening. The Australian needs to keep the action near the center of the Octagon and exit laterally after his combinations, preventing Evloev from driving him straight back to the fence.

The second and third defensive reactions could make the difference in the wrestling exchanges. Evloev chains his attacks exceptionally well: a defended takedown can immediately become another grip, a rear body lock or a renewed attempt to bring the fight down. Volkanovski therefore needs to break the grips and fully disengage. Simply standing up while remaining attached to Evloev allows the attacking sequence to continue.

Evloev has already demonstrated against Lerone Murphy that he can win over five rounds, so my prediction does not depend on him running out of energy. I see Volkanovski’s advantage in the variety and impact of his offense during the open striking exchanges. Leg kicks, body attacks and short punches timed against Evloev’s entries can all make the challenger pay for closing the distance.

Volkanovski’s two decision victories over Diego Lopes showed that he can still construct and execute a disciplined five-round game plan. I expect the same approach here: clean scoring shots from the opening round, quick returns to the feet and tactical adjustments as the fight develops.

I expect Volkanovski to win the more closely contested striking exchanges and get back up often enough to prevent Evloev from establishing sustained control. My pick is Alexander Volkanovski by decision.

Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili

Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili to win

I am picking Merab Dvalishvili in their third meeting. The rivalry stands at 1–1, and both men have already demonstrated an effective route to beating the other. Merab needs to bring back the constant initiative he showed in their first encounter, supported by cleaner entries and more productive attacks.

Merab attempted 49 takedowns in their first fight. The significance went beyond the number he completed: Yan was continually forced to defend and reset, making it difficult to establish his own combinations. In the rematch, however, Yan found his offensive opportunities more effectively and repeatedly hurt Merab to the body. That creates a specific requirement for the trilogy: Merab needs better preparation before closing the distance and must spend less time directly in front of Yan at mid-range.

The most effective approach is to set up his level changes with punches and keep chaining his takedown attempts together. When Yan stops the first attack, Merab needs to change direction, steer the exchange toward the fence and continue working with short strikes. Holding on will not be enough; he must turn disruptions to Yan’s balance into meaningful offense.

Merab’s striking works best within that system. When Yan is simultaneously anticipating punches and takedowns, it becomes harder to plant his feet and deliver counters. Merab needs short combinations to disrupt the rhythm, followed immediately by a clinch entry or an angle change. That should reduce the number of extended punching exchanges in which Yan’s technical precision becomes particularly effective.

As the fight progresses, I expect Merab’s repeated attacks to make the difference. Every successful stand-up from Yan needs to be followed by another defensive task, while Merab must use any positions he secures on the ground to strike and advance. That pace can keep him in control of the initiative and help him produce more successful attacks throughout the rounds.

My prediction is Merab Dvalishvili by decision, with prepared entries, relentless wrestling and activity between attacks helping him reclaim the championship.

Lone’er Kavanagh vs. Ramazan Temirov

Prediction: Ramazan Temirov to win

Temirov is my pick because of his explosive entries and powerful combinations at close range. Kavanagh is a quick, technical striker, so Temirov needs to close the distance with purpose. Body attacks and changes of direction can prevent Kavanagh from comfortably moving away after every combination.

Temirov most recently knocked out Steve Erceg in the first round, once again demonstrating how dangerous he becomes when he connects several powerful shots in quick succession. I expect him to alternate between the body and head here. Body punches can slow Kavanagh’s footwork and create further openings upstairs.

I expect Temirov to establish his decisive advantage when he forces Kavanagh into prolonged defensive exchanges near the fence. My pick is Temirov to win, with his punching power making a knockout or TKO a realistic outcome.

Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev

Prediction: Alexander Volkov to win

Volkov’s long-range offense, experience against elite heavyweights and disciplined distance management put me on his side. Kuniev presents a serious challenge in the clinch and wrestling exchanges, so Volkov needs to work before those entries happen. His jab and straight kicks to the body can slow Kuniev’s approach.

Volkov most recently defeated Waldo Cortes-Acosta by decision, having also beaten Jailton Almeida in his previous appearance. Those performances provide a solid foundation for expecting another patient, structured three-round effort. Against Kuniev, disengaging immediately after breaking a grip against the fence will be particularly important.

I expect Volkov to land more cleanly in open space and make Kuniev work continuously through his kicking game. The more experienced heavyweight’s offense from distance should carry him to a decision victory.

Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita

Prediction: Aaron Pico to win

Pico’s combination of boxing and high-level wrestling makes him my choice. Keita is fast and powerful, so Pico needs to regularly connect his striking attacks with the threat of a takedown. That can make it harder for Keita to freely commit to his most powerful punches.

Pico most recently defeated Patricio Freire by unanimous decision. I expect another patient, well-rounded performance here: body punches leading into wrestling entries, pressure against the fence and effective work from a stable top position.

On the ground, Pico needs to complement his control with short strikes and respond to Keita’s attempts to stand with further attacks. I see Pico as the fighter who can create multiple threats within the same sequence and gradually take control. My pick is Pico to win, primarily by decision.

Azamat Murzakanov vs. Dominick Reyes

Prediction: Azamat Murzakanov to win

Murzakanov’s explosive boxing entries and power in short exchanges make him my pick. Reyes is taller and has the longer reach, so Murzakanov needs rhythm changes and feints to enter punching range. Exiting safely after each attack will be equally important.

Both men operate from a southpaw stance, placing particular importance on lead-hand positioning and the timing of their attacks. Murzakanov should also target the body so Reyes cannot focus exclusively on defending powerful punches to the head.

His twelve knockout victories demonstrate that he can create decisive moments with compact shots. I expect controlled entries followed by short combinations to give him the advantage. My prediction is Murzakanov to win, with a stoppage a strong possibility.

Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

Prediction: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev to win

Yakhyaev’s fast starts, explosiveness and multiple finishing options put me on his side. He has won all three of his UFC appearances in the first round, most recently knocking out Julius Walker in just eight seconds. He is dangerous on the ground as well, having earned his other two UFC victories by rear-naked choke.

His ability to move quickly from one phase to another could be particularly effective against Krylov. A successful punch can lead directly into a wrestling entry, while a completed takedown can create an opportunity to take the back during an attempted stand-up. Those attacks still need to come from secure positions because Krylov is an experienced finisher himself.

I expect Yakhyaev to seize the initiative early and create a decisive opening through connected attacks. My pick is Yakhyaev to win, most likely inside the distance.

Abus Magomedov vs. Cameron Rowston

Prediction: Cameron Rowston to win

Rowston’s sustained offense and ability to transition between striking and grappling make him my choice. He needs organized defense from the opening minute against Magomedov, while also launching enough offense to prevent his opponent from taking complete control of the initiative.

Rowston has beaten Cody Brundage by TKO and Robert Bryczek by decision this year. Those results show that he can find a finish or execute a game plan across three rounds. Body attacks, short combinations and immediate counters after separating from the clinch can help him build an advantage here.

Getting organized quickly after returning to his feet will also be essential. Rowston needs to use every open striking opportunity productively. I expect him to land more cleanly during the second and third rounds and do enough to earn the decision.

Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev

Prediction: Nurullo Aliev to win

I am backing Aliev in this matchup between two strong wrestlers. The decisive question is who finishes the grappling transitions on top and who turns those positions into effective offense. Aliev’s balance and consistent top control give him a solid foundation for that task.

He most recently defeated Mike Davis by unanimous decision and remains unbeaten. Against Dawson, protecting his back and choosing his stand-up attempts carefully will be especially important, as the American regularly finds submissions during those transitions.

I expect patient positional work from Aliev, connected takedown attempts against the fence and short strikes on the ground. He should emerge from enough of the closely contested wrestling exchanges in the better position to dictate significant portions of the rounds. My pick is Aliev by decision.

Colby Thicknesse vs. Asaf Chopurov

Prediction: Colby Thicknesse to win

Thicknesse’s UFC experience and ability to execute a complete game plan over three rounds make him my choice. He has beaten both Josias Musasa and Vince Morales by decision, demonstrating that he can remain composed and effective in longer contests.

He needs to be active from the outset against the unbeaten Chopurov while launching his attacks from organized positions. Short combinations and changes of direction can test the newcomer’s reactions, while off-balancing techniques in the clinch and strikes on the break can create further opportunities.

Thicknesse’s wrestling background and black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu also give him options when navigating ground exchanges. I expect a technical contest with frequent positional changes, with the Australian’s round-by-round approach ultimately proving effective. Thicknesse to win, primarily by decision, is my pick.

Abubakar Vagaev vs. Jacob Malkoun

Prediction: Jacob Malkoun to win

Malkoun’s boxing setups and repeated wrestling attacks put me on his side. Vagaev is an experienced wrestler himself, so Malkoun needs to connect different entries, change direction after an unsuccessful attempt and continue working with short punches at close range.

Malkoun has already earned decision victories over Torrez Finney and Gerald Meerschaert this year. I expect him to build on those performances by remaining active on the feet and adding takedowns at the right moments. Punches landed immediately after breaking grips could be particularly valuable while both men are resetting their stances.

I expect Malkoun to produce more effective offense in the striking exchanges and secure the better position often enough during the wrestling sequences. My prediction is Malkoun by decision in a closely contested fight.

Bolaji Oki vs. Daniel Santos

Prediction: Daniel Santos to win

Santos is my pick because of his persistent offense and variety of weapons at close range. Against Oki’s longer reach, he needs feints and short combinations to close the distance. Once inside, body punches, knees and attacks from the clinch can become effective.

Santos can also bring his wrestling into the exchanges, forcing Oki to anticipate both strikes and takedown attempts. That can make it harder for Oki to comfortably plant his feet and deliver long straight punches.

Santos needs to maintain disciplined pressure and protect himself from the return fire after each combination. My prediction is built around his ability to connect different attacks at close range and produce the more effective work over three rounds. I am backing Santos to win.

Kody Steele vs. Noah Gugnon

Prediction: Noah Gugnon to win

Gugnon’s ability to connect his striking with quick finishing opportunities makes him my pick. He submitted Miloš Janičić with a rear-naked choke just 81 seconds into his UFC debut and has finished every one of his professional victories.

Careful positional choices will be essential on the ground against Steele. The American has an extensive jiu-jitsu background and won his most recent fight by heel hook, so Gugnon needs secure leg positioning and control. On the feet, short combinations and angle changes can help him create opportunities to transition on favorable terms.

I expect Gugnon to use his punches to draw reactions from Steele before committing to his grappling attacks. My pick is Gugnon to win, with taking the back presenting his clearest finishing opportunity.

Iasmin Lucindo vs. Nicolle Caliari

Prediction: Iasmin Lucindo to win

Lucindo’s experience against stronger opposition and her ability to connect striking with wrestling make her my choice. She has already beaten Marina Rodriguez, Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Angela Hill, demonstrating that she can succeed against experienced opponents with different styles.

Against Caliari, short combinations leading into the clinch and takedowns timed against her movement offer strong attacking opportunities. On the ground, Lucindo needs to strike from secure positions and remain alert to Caliari’s submission attempts during stand-ups and positional transitions.

Lucindo is returning from an extended absence, making it particularly important to establish her distance and rhythm early. I expect her to become increasingly effective at mixing her attacks and controlling multiple phases of the contest. My pick is Lucindo by decision.