UFC Fight Night 281 Predictions!

Dricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman

Pick: Kamaru Usman to win
Odds: 2.91

The main event of UFC Fight Night 281 between Dricus Du Plessis and Kamaru Usman is a much more interesting matchup than the surface narrative suggests. Many people may lean toward Du Plessis because of age, size, and current physical condition, but stylistically we believe this fight is much more open. Usman is older and will likely be at a slight size disadvantage, but overall we still see him as the more complete, cleaner, and more technically structured fighter.

One of Usman’s most important weapons in this matchup could be his elite jab. Du Plessis often has defensive issues, does not move his head well enough, and leaves himself open to straight punches. That gives Usman a clear path to success. He does not need to force a one-shot finish. Instead, he can use the jab to gradually break Du Plessis down, control distance, and prevent him from turning the fight into wild chaos.

The wrestling is another key factor. Du Plessis has around 50% takedown defense, which is not a reassuring number at this level, especially against someone like Usman. This does not necessarily mean Usman will dominate him on the ground for the entire fight, but he can take him down at certain moments, disrupt his rhythm, and slow down his pressure. Those takedowns can matter not only for scoring, but also because Du Plessis relies heavily on pressure, awkward movement, and sudden tempo changes. If Usman mixes striking and wrestling intelligently, he can make this a very uncomfortable fight for him.

Another recurring issue with Du Plessis is that he often switches stances unnecessarily. It can look dynamic, but technically it is not always clean, and it can leave him exposed during transitions. Usman is excellent at throwing solo rear hands, especially when an opponent switches stance at the wrong time or is not properly balanced. If Usman first establishes the jab, he can force Du Plessis into bad reactions and then punish those moments with clean rear-hand shots.

Of course, this is not a risk-free pick. Usman is older, he has been competing at the highest level for a long time, and Du Plessis is physically strong, awkward, and difficult to read. However, when we look at the matchup, Usman has several clear technical tools that directly target Du Plessis’ weaknesses: a better jab, cleaner fundamentals, a stronger wrestling threat, better control, and sharper punch selection when Du Plessis switches stance or attacks too openly.

Overall, our pick is Kamaru Usman to win. Even if he is older and slightly smaller, we still believe he is the more intelligent, more complete fighter. If he avoids getting dragged into Du Plessis’ chaos and instead builds the fight around his jab, distance control, occasional takedowns, and accurate rear hands, Usman at odds of 2.91 looks like a strong value pick.

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