Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United

EFL Cup / Carabao Cup – Round 2
Venue: The City Ground, Nottingham
Referee: Andrew Kitchen

Picks

1. Nottingham Forest to Qualify @ 1.68

For Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United in the Carabao Cup, my preferred pick is Nottingham Forest to Qualify @ 1.68. This is not a straight 90-minute win bet, and that matters. In the EFL Cup second round there is no extra time, so if the match is level after 90 minutes, it goes straight to penalties. That makes the qualification market a better fit than forcing a regular-time Forest win.

This is also a special matchup because the same teams played at the same stadium three days ago in the Premier League. Leeds won 1-0 through Anton Stach’s 88th-minute free-kick. That makes this an immediate revenge spot for Forest rather than a normal cup tie. At home, Glasner’s side have a quick chance to correct the result and reset the mood.

Forest are the stronger side by squad value. Nottingham Forest are around €517.8m, while Leeds are around €353.8m. That is not a massive enough gap to treat Forest as a guaranteed 90-minute winner, especially after Leeds already won here, but at home and in a qualification market it becomes a meaningful edge. The City Ground, the response factor and the deeper squad all support Forest.

Oliver Glasner’s project is still very fresh. The 0-1 defeat to Leeds showed that the attacking game is not fully ready yet, but the structure was not poor. Chris Wood missed a strong chance, and Forest did not collapse. Glasner asked for patience, and this type of cup match is exactly where the team can build rhythm, confidence and a result without needing every attacking connection to be perfect.

Morgan Gibbs-White’s absence is a major loss because he is Forest’s main creative player and the key link between midfield and attack. That is another reason why the qualification market makes sense. Without Gibbs-White, Forest may not look fully fluid, but they still have enough quality through Wood/Igor Jesus, Hudson-Odoi, McAtee/Ndoye, Schlager and Sangaré to find a way through at home.

The summer additions also strengthen Forest. Ousmane Diomande, Xaver Schlager and Steven Benda can all be useful in this kind of cup game. Diomande gives the back three more stability and duel strength, while Schlager brings intensity, ball-winning and running power in midfield. Savona and Yates are losses for rotation, but the overall squad remains strong enough to handle this fixture.

Leeds arrive in a better mood after winning here three days ago. Daniel Farke’s team is well organized in a 3-4-3 / 3-4-2-1 shape, Trafford kept a clean sheet, Stach decided the match from a set piece, and Harry Wilson already looked dangerous. This will not be an easy Forest game. Leeds have structure, set-piece quality and transition threat.

Still, the cup context can bring rotation for Leeds as well. Gnonto’s absence removes one-vs-one speed and a strong bench-changing option. Gudmundsson is missing from the left-side depth, Gruev is not match-ready yet, and Mateo Joseph is out from the attacking rotation. Calvert-Lewin, Wilson and Stach remain important weapons, but beating Forest away twice in three days is a difficult task.

Tactically, the match can be decided by wing-backs and second balls. Both teams can play with a back three, so wide zones, set pieces and midfield duels will matter. Leeds remain dangerous through Stach’s delivery and Wilson’s left foot, but Forest should react with more aggression after the previous defeat, especially through second balls, crosses and the box presence of Wood or Igor Jesus.

Andrew Kitchen is not an extreme card-heavy referee. Based on the provided data, he is around 3 yellow cards per match, with a lower Carabao Cup card tendency. This is not a referee-based pick. The main logic is Forest’s home advantage, stronger squad, immediate response spot and the fact that penalties after a draw are included in the qualification market.

The conditions are normal. The City Ground has a natural grass pitch, around 20°C at match time, partly cloudy conditions and no major rain issue. That gives a fair football environment. Combined with the cup format, I expect a tight match decided by details, but Forest have enough to find the qualification route.

Note

Our free pick is usually selected for the biggest and most popular match of the day. This does not necessarily mean it is our strongest value bet, as our best opportunities are typically reserved for VIP members. However, every free selection is researched with the same professional approach and analytical standards. We always aim to provide the most optimal betting angle for the day’s headline matchup while delivering high-quality analysis to all readers.