UFC Fight Night 285 Full Card Predictions

Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues

Main Pick: Gregory Rodrigues to win @ 2.34
Second Option: Under 2.5 completed rounds @ 1.72

Rodrigues is the value side at this price. Hernandez comes in as the favorite because of his relentless pace, wrestling pressure and five-round cardio. But this matchup is not only about cardio and grappling. In the first two rounds, Rodrigues is the more dangerous fighter, and that is exactly where he can win this fight: during entries, before the clinch is fully established, and in the exchanges where Hernandez is trying to force pressure.

Rodrigues is a physically strong middleweight with serious power and a strong grappling background. He is not just a pure striker who falls apart once he gets taken down. He is a BJJ black belt, strong in scrambles, and dangerous enough to stop Hernandez from wrestling without consequence. If Hernandez keeps moving forward in straight lines, Rodrigues’ right hand, knees and short punches can become a major problem.

The market has Hernandez as a clear favorite, but we think it is pricing too much of his pace and not enough of Rodrigues’ early danger. Hernandez is coming off a TKO loss, and Rodrigues is exactly the type of opponent who does not give you much room to make mistakes. If Robocop can stop the forward pressure early with heavy shots, the whole rhythm of the fight can change.

Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino
Pick: Vitor Petrino
Petrino is the fresher and more explosive side here. Spivac’s grappling is always dangerous, but Petrino has the size, strength and power to make this fight uncomfortable on the feet. If he avoids long cage-control sequences, his cleaner power shots can be the difference.

Reinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze
Pick: Roman Dolidze
Dolidze is the stronger, more compact and more dangerous fighter in the pocket. De Ridder brings length and grappling, but at light heavyweight, Dolidze’s physicality, clinch strength and explosive attacks should matter more. We like Dolidze to turn this into a harder, more direct fight.

MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones
Pick: Mason Jones
Jones is the more proven and complete fighter. He has the pace, wrestling, pressure and experience to win this fight in multiple ways. Mederos is dangerous, but Jones’ UFC and Cage Warriors experience make him the more reliable side across three rounds.

Carli Judice vs Jeisla Chaves
Pick: Jeisla Chaves
Chaves is unbeaten, physically strong for the division, and has the tools to slow down Judice’s aggression. Judice carries real finishing danger, but Chaves can win this if she stays composed, keeps the exchanges clean and avoids getting dragged into a reckless firefight.

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev
Pick: Shamil Gaziev
Gaziev’s raw heavyweight power and early pressure are the key factors. Nzechukwu is long and dangerous with knees and straight shots, but Gaziev has the strength to close distance, force clinch exchanges and stop Kennedy from building comfortable long-range offense.

Wesley Schultz vs Jackson McVey
Pick: Jackson McVey
McVey is taller, longer and has strong finishing upside. Schultz is dangerous with submissions, but McVey can also work in grappling exchanges, and his physical tools give him the edge on the feet. We like McVey as the fresher, more aggressive side.

Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast
Pick: Chris Padilla
Padilla’s momentum and all-around threat make him a live side here. Haqparast is experienced and has solid boxing, but Padilla brings more finishing danger and can make this uncomfortable in more than one phase. If he pushes pace, he can steal the close rounds.

Gauge Young vs Stanley Dorsainvili
Pick: Stanley Dorsainvili
This one needs a bit more caution because there were some card-listing differences in the fresh checks, but based on this matchup, Dorsainvili’s unbeaten record and prospect momentum stand out. Young has already shown he belongs at UFC level, but Dorsainvili is the pick if he can make it physical and deny Young a comfortable rhythm.

Jamall Emmers vs Lerryan Douglas
Pick: Jamall Emmers
Emmers is the more experienced, technical and composed fighter. Douglas is a dangerous finisher, but Emmers has the reach, wrestling base and UFC experience to take away that early chaos. We like Emmers to fight smart and control the key moments.

Anthony Wint vs Terrance Chatman
Pick: Anthony Wint
Wint is an unbeaten heavyweight with serious physical power and early finishing upside. There is natural variance here with two lower-sample heavyweight profiles, but Wint’s athleticism and power make him the preferred side. This could be short and violent.

Shanelle Dyer vs Elise Reed
Pick: Shanelle Dyer
Dyer is younger, more explosive and appears to be on the stronger development curve. Reed has more UFC experience, but Dyer’s Muay Thai base, pressure and physical presence can help her take control of the fight. We like Dyer as the sharper side.

Ryan Kuse vs Marcio Barbosa
Pick: Ryan Kuse
Kuse brings length, knockout power and experience across multiple weight classes. Barbosa comes in with a strong record, but Kuse’s reach can be a major weapon at featherweight. If he controls distance, the cleaner and more damaging shots should come from him.

Final Picks

After going through the full card, these are the plays we like the most:

Most Likely Picks

• Shamil Gaziev to win @ 1.68
• Vitor Petrino to win @ 1.58

These are the safer sides on the card for us. Gaziev brings heavyweight power and physical pressure, while Petrino has the explosiveness and striking upside to beat Spivac if he avoids long grappling exchanges.

Upset Picks / Value Underdogs

• Roman Dolidze to win @ 3.68
• Gregory Rodrigues to win @ 2.34

These are the two underdog spots we like. Dolidze has the physical strength and finishing threat to make the de Ridder fight uncomfortable, while Rodrigues has the power and early danger to punish Hernandez before the pressure and cardio game fully takes over.