Everton vs Chelsea

Competition: Premier League | Matchweek 7
Date: 17 October 2026
Kick-off: 12:30 BST (11:30 UTC)
Venue: Hill Dickinson Stadium
Referee: Paul Tierney | 9 yellow cards and no reds across 3 Premier League matches this season.
VAR: Nick Hopton
Weather forecast: Around 11–12°C at kick-off, sunshine and occasional cloud, winds of approximately 10–11 km/h and a low chance of rain.

Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes AND Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.89

Chelsea’s high-scoring start and Everton’s chance creation provide the foundation for my selection. The visitors have been effective in attack while regularly leaving opportunities at the other end. I expect Everton to exploit some of those openings at home, with Chelsea also finding the net. Both teams must score and the match must produce at least three goals: 2–1 or 2–2 would suit the bet, while 1–1 would not.

Chelsea average 2.5 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per match. Their 5.3 shots on target also show a regular attacking threat, although the scoring average needs caution. Their 15 goals across six league games have come from a total xG of 8.4, meaning their finishing has been particularly productive relative to the quality of their chances. I would not automatically expect that rate to continue, but their current attacking play supports an away goal.

Everton’s average of 1.3 goals is more modest, yet their opportunity count is encouraging. They average five shots on target and have created 20 big chances. Having missed 16 of them, improved finishing is important here. I expect opportunities against a Chelsea side with total expected goals conceded of 10.2 and an average of 4.2 goalkeeper saves per match, both indicating substantial work around their own goal.

Set pieces are particularly interesting in this matchup. Everton have scored three goals from those situations, while Chelsea have conceded six, the worst record in the league. That offers a specific route to a home goal even if clear chances from open play prove harder to create. Everton also average 5.5 possession wins in the final third, which could help them turn recoveries into immediate danger.

Everton’s defending is the strongest counterargument. They concede only 0.8 goals per match and have kept three clean sheets. Their total xGA of 8.3 adds some context: the quality of the chances allowed could have produced more goals against them. Nevertheless, their organisation remains a significant obstacle that Chelsea must overcome.

Caicedo’s return matters because it could improve Chelsea’s midfield balance and their defending after losing possession. The visitors’ early-season goals-conceded average should therefore not simply be carried forward unchanged. Reece James and Gittens are on the injury list, while Emegha is doubtful. Mykolenko’s availability is uncertain for Everton, and the final squads could still change.

The recent history of this fixture also warrants caution: Chelsea have failed to score in their last three away league meetings with Everton. My selection rests mainly on current chance creation and the set-piece matchup. If Everton control the rhythm, or Chelsea’s improved midfield protection reduces the hosts’ opportunities, the necessary third goal could fail to arrive.

My pick is Both Teams to Score — Yes AND Over 2.5 Goals at 1.89. Chelsea’s defensive vulnerabilities offer Everton a route to goal, while the visitors’ attacking play supports a response. I am backing a game in which one side scores twice and the other finds the net at least once.