Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal

Competition: Premier League
Date: Sunday, 18 October 2026
Kick-off: 16:30 BST, local time | 15:30 UTC
Venue: The City Ground, Nottingham
Referee: Michael Oliver. His Premier League record this season: 5 matches, 14 yellow cards and 1 red card.
VAR: Michael Salisbury
Weather forecast: Around 12°C, cloudy with a chance of rain and winds of approximately 14–15 km/h.

Pick: Both teams to score or over 2.5 total goals: Yes
Odds: 1.52

Nottingham Forest’s scoring average does not immediately suggest a goals-based selection. Their chance creation, however, tells a more interesting story. Alongside Arsenal’s attacking threat, Forest’s missed opportunities provide the main argument for this pick, although both teams’ defensive numbers deserve just as much attention.

Forest are averaging only 0.8 goals per game, but they have accumulated 10.6 expected goals and created 21 big chances. They have missed 17 of those opportunities, the highest total in the league. Their problem has therefore not simply been an inability to create openings. Finishing has been a significant issue. That does not guarantee an improvement this weekend, but their scoring average alone understates the chances they have been generating.

Arsenal’s attacking figures are more balanced. The visitors average 1.7 goals and five shots on target per match, with 10.8 expected goals overall. Their 193 touches inside the opposition penalty area rank second in the division. Those numbers support the expectation that Arsenal can threaten the Forest goal, without necessarily suggesting they will score three on their own.

With an average possession share of 59.1%, Arsenal look more likely to take the initiative. Forest do not necessarily need long spells of possession to create problems, though. Their averages of 26.5 accurate long balls and six accurate crosses per game show that they also have more direct ways of getting the ball towards the opposition goal.

There are fitness concerns on both sides. Savona, Milenković and Igor Jesus are listed as injured for Forest. Arsenal have Hincapié, Zubimendi and Tzolis on their injury list, while Saliba is back in training but his availability remains uncertain. Forest’s absences therefore affect their attacking options as well as their defence.

The clearest argument against the selection is how little either side has allowed in terms of chance quality. Arsenal have conceded a league-low 4.7 expected goals, with Forest second on 7.2. The visitors also concede just 0.8 actual goals per match. A controlled Arsenal victory, particularly 0–1 or 0–2, is a realistic threat to this bet.

The selection is both teams to score or at least three total goals, rather than both conditions needing to happen. A 1–1 draw wins the bet, as does a 0–3 away victory. Forest’s chance creation and Arsenal’s attacking numbers offer a case for that approach, but improved finishing from the hosts would make a meaningful difference.