Liverpool vs Villarreal

Competition: UEFA Champions League, league phase, matchday 3

Date: Tuesday, 20 October 2026

Kick-off: 20:00 BST, local time | 19:00 UTC

Venue: Anfield, Liverpool

Referee: Szymon Marciniak. His Polish league record this season: 7 matches, 17 yellow cards, 0 red cards and 2 penalties awarded.

VAR: Piotr Lasyk

Weather forecast: Around 10°C, light rain and winds of approximately 8 km/h.

Pick: Both teams to score and over 2.5 total goals: Yes

Odds: 1.80

I am looking towards goals in this match: a goal from each side and at least three in total. That is not because either team’s domestic scoring average is particularly high. My reasoning centres on their chances, shots on target and Villarreal’s record of conceding. Liverpool’s defensive numbers provide a meaningful argument against the selection, though, and I do not want to overlook them.

The key domestic league numbers

These figures cover each team’s overall 2026/27 domestic league campaign, not separate home and away records. Cumulative totals may cover different numbers of matches, so I do not treat them as a direct ranking of the teams. Expected goals estimates chance quality; it is not a promise of future goals.

Why I expect a Liverpool goal

Liverpool average five shots on target per match, ranking fifth in the Premier League. That gives a more encouraging picture than their 1.3 scoring average alone, but there is an important limitation: they have created only ten big chances, placing them 19th in the division. My reading is that the shooting volume is there, while the regular creation of clear openings remains less convincing.

Seven of those ten big chances have been missed, and their total of 10.9 expected goals also points to opportunities left unfinished. Improvement is not automatic. However, Villarreal concede 1.4 goals per match and have kept just one clean sheet. That combination matters more to my assessment than Liverpool’s name or Anfield’s reputation on its own.

The case for Villarreal scoring

For the visitors, creating opportunities appears to be less of a problem than finishing them. Villarreal average 6.3 shots on target, have created 31 big chances and have accumulated 19.5 expected goals. They rank third in LaLiga for the latter two measures. Their 358 touches inside the opposition penalty area also suggest that their possession produces attacking involvement rather than simply harmless passing.

Against that background, a scoring average of 1.4 is modest. They have missed 21 of their 31 big chances, leaving a significant number of opportunities unconverted. This is the strongest part of my case for an away goal: I am not relying on a side that barely attacks to produce something unexpected. Equally, previous misses do not mean their next chances must go in.

With 60.4% average possession and 511.1 accurate passes per match in their domestic league, I expect Villarreal to try to build attacks with the ball. That does not mean they will necessarily dominate possession at Anfield. For me, it shows that they have an established way of constructing attacks. If they can still use it under Liverpool’s pressure, there is a route to a goal.

Team news and reservations

Liverpool cannot call on Frimpong or Szoboszlai, while Gravenberch is available again following his domestic suspension. Buchanan has returned to training for Villarreal, although that does not confirm his availability. I see those updates as reasons to assess the lineups carefully, not as automatic evidence of more goals.

Liverpool’s total of 8.3 expected goals conceded is the third-lowest in the Premier League, and they have already kept three clean sheets. That makes the Villarreal goal the more demanding part of this selection in my view. I would not build the argument around set pieces either: Liverpool have not conceded a league goal from one, while Villarreal have scored only once that way.

My pick is therefore both teams to score and over 2.5 total goals at 1.80. A 2–1 or 1–2 result would be enough; 1–1 and 3–0 would not. Chance creation is the argument behind the selection, while uncertain finishing and Liverpool’s defensive strength are the main concerns.