Pick: Errol Spence Jr. to win
Odds: 1.85
Errol Spence Jr. vs Tim Tszyu is an interesting matchup, mainly because there are clear questions around Spence’s age and long layoff. Those factors cannot be ignored, but even with that in mind, we still lean toward Spence. The key factor is that Spence prepared under Ronnie Shields, and in our opinion that says a lot. With a trainer of that level, he surely received the right type of work and preparation. If anyone can bring him back in sharp, professional condition, it is a coach like that.
Tim Tszyu is a talented fighter, there is no doubt about that, but we do not think he has the same toughness and natural brutality his father had. On top of that, there are technical flaws in his game that could become serious problems against Spence. One of the biggest issues is how poorly he uses his rear hand. Against a southpaw like Spence, that should be one of his most important weapons, but if he cannot use it with the right timing, accuracy, and consistency, it will be difficult for him to build clean offense.
One of Spence’s biggest strengths is his body punching. That could work extremely well against Tszyu’s forward-walking style. Tszyu often tries to fight behind pressure, physical presence, and constant forward movement, but defensively he is far from reliable. To put it simply, defense is almost a nonexistent concept in his game at times. Against a boxer like Spence, who picks his shots well, attacks the body effectively, and can punish open entries, that is a dangerous weakness.
The layoff obviously makes this pick riskier than it should be. But anyone who has followed Spence’s career knows the level of opponents he has boxed, both as a professional and as an amateur. He brings a level of experience, ring IQ, and quality that Tszyu may not have even seen regularly in sparring. Layoff or not, Spence is a different animal on this playground.
Overall, our pick is Errol Spence Jr. to win. Tszyu is dangerous and physically strong, but Spence is the better boxer, has much higher-level experience, carries a dangerous body attack, and his southpaw stance can create major technical problems for Tszyu.
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Analysis resources used:
Football: FotMob, FootyStats, SoccerSTATS, Windrawwin
MMA/Boxing: Sherdog, Tapology, BoxRec, FightDX
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