Malmö FF vs Elfsborg

Allsvenskan 2026 – Round 14
Venue: Eleda Stadion
Referee: Kristoffer Karlsson

Picks

1. Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 1.60

The Both Teams to Score – Yes @ 1.60 selection for Malmö FF vs Elfsborg is built on the fact that both teams have enough attacking quality to score, while neither defensive profile is fully secure. The matchup fits the BTTS market well because Malmö are strong at home and carry a clear attacking profile, while Elfsborg, despite lower possession, have enough underlying attacking numbers to create danger.

Malmö remain one of the stronger attacking teams in the Allsvenskan. They average 2.1 goals per match, have generated 18.9 xG, record 5.0 shots on target per match, have created 28 big chances, registered 376 touches in the opposition box, and won 63 corners. These numbers strongly support the home goal. Malmö are also excellent from set pieces, with 10 set-piece goals, which matters against an Elfsborg side that have conceded 4 set-piece goals.

Elfsborg’s attacking numbers are more modest at first glance, but they are very useful for the BTTS market. They average 1.3 goals per match, have generated 18.7 xG, created 31 big chances, registered 336 touches in the opposition box, won 54 corners, and earned 2 penalties. That shows Elfsborg are not only relying on random counters. They regularly reach dangerous areas, and the 31 big chances are a strong indicator of real scoring potential.

The Malmö goal is further supported by Elfsborg’s defensive profile. Elfsborg concede 1.2 goals per match, have allowed 19.1 xG, average 26.2 clearances, require 3.0 saves per match, and have conceded 4 set-piece goals. This is not a broken defense, but it is a defense that can be put under pressure. Malmö at home, with 55.6% possession and strong penalty-box presence, can create enough pressure for at least one goal.

On the other side, Malmö’s defensive numbers strongly support the Elfsborg goal. Malmö concede 1.7 goals per match, have allowed 22.3 xG, conceded 6 set-piece goals, and require 3.8 saves per match. That shows Malmö regularly allow quality chances and force their goalkeeper into work. Against an Elfsborg team with 18.7 xG, 31 big chances, and 336 box touches, this gives the away goal a strong foundation.

The expected match script also fits Both Teams to Score. Malmö should be the more proactive side at home, with more possession and attacking periods. That supports the home goal, but it can also create space for Elfsborg. Elfsborg average only 46.0% possession, but their 23.1 accurate long balls, 4.4 accurate crosses, and 31 big chances show that they can create danger in a more direct way.

Set pieces can matter on both sides. Malmö have scored 10 set-piece goals, making them one of the strongest teams in the league in that area, while Elfsborg have scored 3. Defensively, both teams have conceded from set pieces: Malmö 6 and Elfsborg 4. That creates two-way danger from corners, wide free kicks, rebounds, and second balls.

The BTTS angle is also supported by the fact that both teams’ attacking numbers are too strong to expect only one side to score. Malmö’s 376 box touches, 63 corners, and 10 set-piece goals point toward home pressure. Elfsborg’s 31 big chances, 18.7 xG, 54 corners, and 2 penalties awarded show enough away scoring routes.

Malmö’s negative xG difference is also relevant. Their -3.3 xG difference shows that while they are effective going forward, they allow too much defensively. For a BTTS market, that is important: Malmö have the attacking quality for their own goal, while also leaving enough space and chances for the opponent. Elfsborg’s -0.4 xG difference is more balanced, but their chance volume still supports the away goal.

The discipline profile also points toward an active, physical match. Malmö average 13.5 fouls and have 25 yellow cards, while Elfsborg average 10.9 fouls and have 23 yellow cards. That suggests a game with duels, interruptions, and possible set-piece situations around the attacking thirds, which can indirectly help the scoring environment.