France vs Italy

UEFA Nations League
Venue: Stade de France
Referee: Jesús Gil Manzano

Picks

1. France -1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.16

For France vs Italy, my preferred pick is France -1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.16. The straight France win around 1.44–1.47 is too short for me, but at 2.16 the two-goal winning margin becomes much more interesting. France do not need a huge blowout for this bet to land; a 2-0 or 3-1 result is enough.

France have started the group perfectly with two away wins, both by 1-0, against Turkey and Belgium. The results were narrow, but the underlying attacking picture was stronger, especially in Belgium, where France had 65% possession, seven shots on target and hit the woodwork twice.

Mbappé is obviously a major absence, but France have enough depth to absorb it. Olise, Dembélé, Doué, Cherki and Barcola still provide elite attacking quality. That becomes particularly important against an Italy side missing Dimarco and Raspadori, two players who give them width, creativity and connection between midfield and attack.

The squad-value gap is also significant. France are around €1.44bn, compared to roughly €830m for Italy. That does not decide an international match on its own, but the difference in bench quality is substantial. If the game is level after 60 minutes, France can still introduce multiple top-level attacking options.

Freshness is another major point. Zidane rotated heavily against Belgium, changing nine positions, which means several key players should be fresher for this match. Italy have had more travel and are more likely to reuse several starters. In a handicap bet, that kind of second-half physical advantage can be decisive.

Tactically, France have several clear routes to hurt Italy. Olise and Doué can attack the full-backs one-v-one, Dembélé can constantly change positions through the middle, while Rabiot and Manu Koné can arrive from deeper areas. If Italy defend too narrowly, France can exploit the wings; if they stretch out, Dembélé and Cherki can find space in the half-spaces.

Dimarco’s absence is particularly important because it weakens both Italy’s attacking width and the natural balance on the left side. France can target that zone through Olise and Koundé. If Italy shift too many players across, Doué can receive more space on the opposite side.

Italy still have quality in midfield. Barella, Tonali and Fagioli are technically strong enough to play through pressure, and Pio Esposito can hold direct passes. Kayode’s pace can also attack Truffert’s side. But if France manage to block Tonali from the first phase of buildup, Italy can become much more predictable.

France’s defensive structure also remains strong. With Koundé, Upamecano, Jacquet and Truffert in front of Maignan, plus Koné and Rabiot controlling second balls, they have enough athleticism to stop Italy’s transition game. Without Dimarco and Raspadori, Italy have fewer ways to create different attacking patterns.

The group situation can also help the handicap. France already have six points and can move to nine with another win. Italy need at least a draw to stay close, so if they fall behind, they will eventually need to take more risks. That can create the exact late-game spaces France need to turn a 1-0 lead into a 2-0 or 3-1 win.

Jesús Gil Manzano is the referee, averaging around 4.9 cards and 25 fouls per match. He is a relatively strict referee, which can lead to many stoppages, but France’s technical attackers can also win dangerous free kicks around the penalty area.

The weather should be ideal for football, around 18°C, dry with light wind. There is nothing in the conditions that should limit France’s technical and high-tempo attacking game.