Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid

Champions League – League Phase, Round 1
Venue: Anfield
Referee: Not reliably confirmed at the time of checking

Picks

1. Liverpool to Win @ 1.72

For Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid in the Champions League opener, my preferred pick is Liverpool to Win @ 1.72. This is a serious Champions League match, so motivation should be high on both sides, but the current form, Anfield factor, squad quality and Atlético’s recent defeat in Bilbao all point toward Liverpool.

Liverpool are unbeaten after three league matches: 2-2 against Newcastle, 2-2 against Nottingham Forest, and then a 2-0 win away at Ipswich. Iraola’s first win was important because Isak scored twice, Gakpo delivered two assists, and Barcola made his debut. The first two matches showed some defensive issues, but the Ipswich win gave Liverpool a much stronger platform before the Champions League opener.

Atlético have a 2-1-1 record after four LaLiga matches, but the latest 3-0 defeat away at Athletic Bilbao is a very poor signal before travelling to Anfield. Simeone’s team will look for a reaction, but this is one of the hardest stadiums to do it in. Against Bilbao, Atlético had possession, but created few clean chances and defended transitions poorly. Against Liverpool’s attacking quality, that can be punished quickly.

The squad-value gap also favors Liverpool. They are around €979.5m, while Atlético are around €576.1m. Atlético are not a weak side, but Liverpool have the stronger overall depth, final-third quality and intensity. At Anfield, that gap can become even more visible, especially in Iraola’s first European statement match with Liverpool.

Liverpool’s attack looks strong. Isak, Wirtz, Gakpo, Szoboszlai, Muñoz and Barcola give the team several ways to attack Atlético’s block. Isak’s form is key after his brace at Ipswich, while Gakpo can create from the left and by moving inside. Wirtz between the lines and Szoboszlai’s high pressing and tempo can also give Liverpool a major advantage.

The left side can be Liverpool’s main weapon. Kerkez, Gakpo, Wirtz and Isak can combine in ways that force Atlético’s right side into difficult decisions. If Liverpool move the ball quickly across the pitch, Simeone’s block will need to shift a lot, and that can open half-space gaps. The right side also matters, whether Frimpong or Araújo starts, because Atlético’s transition threat must be controlled.

Atlético are unlikely to press recklessly high from the start. Simeone will likely look for a compact block, disciplined central protection and quick wide exits through Llorente, Grimaldo, Lookman or Giuliano. That can be dangerous, but Sørloth’s absence removes a lot of direct outlet value. At Anfield, Atlético would really benefit from a physical target who can hold the ball, move the team up and win second balls.

Julián Álvarez’s condition is another key point. If he starts from the bench or is not ready for full intensity, Atlético’s attack loses sharpness. Kang-in Lee, Baena, Lookman and Giuliano still offer quality, but against Liverpool, the away attacking structure needs to be extremely precise because the home press can push them back quickly.

Liverpool also have absences, but they do not change the main direction of the match. Ekitiké’s long-term injury is a loss for attacking rotation, Bradley matters for right-side defensive balance, and Gomez, Chiesa and Leoni reduce depth. Still, the starting quality remains strong enough to win a home Champions League match, especially with Isak, Wirtz, Gakpo, Szoboszlai and Van Dijk.

Tactically, the match points toward a Liverpool win. The home side should have more possession, press Atlético’s buildup with higher intensity and build sustained pressure at Anfield. Atlético can be dangerous if Lookman or Giuliano find space in transition, but without Sørloth and with Álvarez’s workload question, their attacking picture does not look fully complete.

The weather and pitch conditions are normal. Anfield has a natural grass pitch, with around 14°C expected, cloudy conditions and low rain risk. That is a good environment for fast, intense football, which suits Liverpool. The home crowd and Champions League opener atmosphere also add to the pressure Atlético will need to handle.

Note

Our free pick is usually selected for the biggest and most popular match of the day. This does not necessarily mean it is our strongest value bet, as our best opportunities are typically reserved for VIP members. However, every free selection is researched with the same professional approach and analytical standards. We always aim to provide the most optimal betting angle for the day’s headline matchup while delivering high-quality analysis to all readers.