Liverpool vs Manchester City

Competition: Premier League
Date: 11 October 2026
Kick-off: 16:30 BST (15:30 UTC)
Venue: Anfield
Referee: Chris Kavanagh | Averaging 4.4 yellow cards and 22.1 fouls per match in the Premier League over the last two years.
VAR: Paul Howard
Weather forecast: Around 14–15°C at kick-off, sunny intervals, light winds of approximately 6–11 km/h and a low chance of rain.

Pick: Liverpool Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1.98

My selection here is Liverpool to score at least twice. City have made a strong start to the season, but their defensive numbers still show opportunities for opponents. At Anfield, I expect Liverpool to create enough dangerous chances to challenge that record. They do not need to win for this bet to land: a 2–2 draw or even a 2–3 defeat would be a winning outcome.

Liverpool have averaged 1.4 goals per match, so reaching two should not be taken for granted. Their total of 8.3 expected goals across five league games does suggest slightly better chance creation than their actual scoring return. Expected goals measures the quality of shooting opportunities, and Liverpool’s chances could have produced more goals so far. An average of 4.8 shots on target also offers support, although neither figure guarantees two goals.

City’s total expected goals conceded of 7.2 is the most interesting number on the other side. They have conceded five goals in five league matches, while the quality of the chances allowed produced a higher expected total. They have kept two clean sheets but also needed an average of 2.8 goalkeeper saves per game. Their defending has delivered results, yet opponents have had opportunities.

Liverpool’s pressing could provide one route to goal. They have applied high-intensity pressure to 48.9% of opponents’ touches in the opposition half this season, the highest rate in the league. Winning possession in dangerous areas could give them a shorter route to City’s goal. The visitors, however, complete 83% of their passes under high-intensity pressure, also the best figure in the competition. Liverpool’s press could matter, but it faces a demanding test.

The hosts also have another way to speed up their attacks. They average 28.6 accurate long passes per match, giving them an option beyond building every move through short combinations. If City push forward, Liverpool could look to bypass the first line of pressure and find space behind the defenders. That is a possible attacking route, dependent on accurate passes and well-timed runs.

Alexander Isak’s involvement is particularly important. His four league goals account for more than half of Liverpool’s seven so far, and the latest predicted lineup includes him as a starter. The confirmed team is still to come. Gakpo, Ekitiké and Chiesa remain on the injury list, reducing Liverpool’s attacking options and placing more responsibility on those who play.

The main concern is Liverpool’s big-chance production. They have created nine and missed six. Scoring twice here will require enough opportunities and effective finishing. If City retain possession for long stretches, Liverpool may have fewer chances to reach their goal. These figures also come from only five league games, so the sample deserves caution.