UFC Fight Night 290: Allen vs. Duncan – Full Card Predictions

The UFC returns to the APEX in Las Vegas on October 10, with Brendan Allen facing Christian Leroy Duncan in the middleweight main event. Several matchups on this card could be decided by how effectively fighters combine their striking and wrestling.

Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan

Prediction: Brendan Allen to win

Brendan Allen is my pick in the main event. Duncan is a dangerous, creative striker who uses unusual rhythm changes, knees and spinning attacks. Closing the distance will therefore be crucial for Allen. He needs to set up his entries with punches, establish the clinch and chain his takedown attempts together to disrupt Duncan’s movement.

Allen enters on a three-fight winning streak, most recently defeating Edmen Shahbazyan by decision. Duncan is also in strong form, having beaten Roman Dolidze and Jared Cannonier this year. The Englishman has already demonstrated that he can execute his game plan against high-level opposition. What puts me on Allen’s side is his sophisticated ground game and experience in five-round fights.

Allen is particularly dangerous when opponents attempt to get back to their feet. Those transitions create opportunities to take the back, threaten submissions and drag his opponent down again. One successful takedown will not be enough. He needs repeated attacks that keep Duncan defending and gradually reduce the energy available for his explosive striking.

Over five rounds, that accumulated physical effort can become decisive. I expect Allen to use his striking to prepare his wrestling entries, steadily increase the pressure and spend more time in advantageous positions during the second half of the contest. My pick is Allen, primarily by decision, although a rear-naked choke is also a realistic finishing opportunity.

Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert

Prediction: Matheus Camilo to win

Camilo’s wrestling gives him the clearest route to victory. Herbert is dangerous at long range, so Camilo needs to use punches to close the distance before connecting his clinch work with takedown attempts against the fence. He currently averages 4.16 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC, illustrating how frequently he pursues that approach. I expect Camilo to win by repeatedly forcing Herbert to defend and turning his ground control into meaningful offense.

Lupita Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza

Prediction: Lupita Godinez to win

Godinez is my choice because of the way she combines close-range striking with wrestling. Souza needs space to deliver clean boxing combinations, but Godinez can disrupt her with short punches, clinch entries and takedowns. Souza’s UFC takedown defense currently stands at 54 percent, giving Godinez a specific weakness to target. I expect sustained pressure, effective work against the fence and enough productive ground control to secure a decision victory.

Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III

Prediction: Andre Fili to win

Fili’s distance management and variety of attacks give him the edge. He can use his longer reach to set up combinations, slow Kamaka’s entries with kicks and switch to wrestling when the opportunity appears. Kamaka’s takedown defense stands at 55 percent, making that another worthwhile avenue for Fili. I expect his work from the outside and well-timed takedowns to make the difference over three rounds.

Julius Walker vs. Gerald Meerschaert

Prediction: Julius Walker to win

I expect Walker to win by building pressure on the feet. Patience is essential against Meerschaert, as a rushed takedown attempt or a careless ground exchange can immediately create a submission threat. Walker needs to attack from a balanced stance, use short combinations and reset the distance after each exchange. His youthful energy and punching power should prevail if he remains disciplined about when to engage at close range.

Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi

Prediction: Otari Tanzilovi to win

Tanzilovi’s wrestling attacks are the main reason I am backing him. Wellmaker’s accurate, powerful counters become harder to set up when striking exchanges are regularly followed by clinch pressure and takedown threats. Wellmaker’s UFC takedown defense stands at 47 percent, and he was submitted by Juan Diaz in his most recent outing. Tanzilovi needs to keep changing his attacks so Wellmaker cannot comfortably wait for one clean counter. That approach gives Tanzilovi a route to a decision victory.

Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim

Prediction: Francisco Prado to win

Prado’s sustained offense and multiple finishing options put me on his side. His victories are evenly divided between knockouts and submissions, so he should look for opportunities to connect his striking with transitions to the ground. Bonfim has lost his last three fights, with two ending through striking stoppages and one by submission. I expect Prado to attack the body as part of his combinations and maintain enough pressure to gradually force Bonfim into mistakes.

Niko Price vs. Leon Shahbazyan

Prediction: Leon Shahbazyan to win

Shahbazyan’s submission game makes him my pick here. Eleven of his twelve victories have come by submission, while Price was most recently caught in a rear-naked choke by Michael Chiesa. Shahbazyan needs controlled entries before patiently building his attacks on the ground. I expect his submission threats to be decisive, particularly when Price attempts to stand up or scramble out of a difficult position.

Felipe Franco vs. Brendson Ribeiro

Prediction: Felipe Franco to win

Franco’s ability to connect his offense with ground attacks gives him the edge. He stopped Levi Rodrigues Jr. with ground-and-pound in his last fight, while Ribeiro has lost his last four appearances. Franco should use short combinations to enter the clinch, then establish a stable top position after completing a takedown. I expect that approach to limit Ribeiro’s long-range striking and allow Franco to increase the pressure on the ground. My pick is Franco, with a TKO a realistic outcome.

Allen Frye Jr. vs. Richard “RJ” Harris

Prediction: Richard “RJ” Harris to win

Harris has demonstrated that he can finish opponents through both striking and grappling. Five of his six victories have come inside the distance, and he stopped Alvin Hines in the first round of his UFC debut. He needs committed entries and effective clinch work to neutralize Frye’s longer reach. I expect Harris to establish pressure at close range before creating the ground offense that carries him to victory.

Alice Pereira vs. Daria Zhelezniakova

Prediction: Alice Pereira to win

Pereira’s longer reach and finishing power make her my choice. She stopped Hailey Cowan in the second round of her last appearance, and five of her seven victories have come by knockout or TKO. Against Zhelezniakova, she needs to prepare her combinations with straight punches and exit laterally before the counters arrive. I expect Pereira’s cleaner connections to make the difference if she consistently maintains a distance from which she can strike first.

Ernesta Kareckaitė vs. Melissa Gatto

Prediction: Melissa Gatto to win

Gatto’s ground offense makes her my pick. Kareckaitė produces a high volume of strikes, so Gatto needs to interrupt prolonged exchanges on the feet and use her combinations to enter the clinch. Her four submission victories demonstrate that she can build different finishing threats on the ground. I expect her ability to threaten chokes and armlocks during positional transitions to make the difference in a physically demanding contest.

Most Confident Picks

• Brendan Allen to win
• Matheus Camilo to win
• Otari Tanzilovi to win

Medium-Confidence Picks

• Julius Walker to win
• Francisco Prado to win
• Felipe Franco to win