Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham

Premier League – Round 3
Venue: The City Ground, Nottingham
Referee: Craig Pawson
VAR: Peter Bankes

Picks

1. Bet Builder: Tottenham or Draw & Both Teams to Score @ 2.50

For Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham, my preferred bet builder is Tottenham or Draw & Both Teams to Score @ 2.50. This is a match between two winless teams, but the setup is not simply about Forest being in better form. Forest arrive with more confidence after drawing 2-2 at Anfield, while Tottenham have lost their first two league matches without scoring. That creates major pressure on Spurs, and this is exactly the type of game where a reaction is needed.

The squad-value gap still favors Tottenham clearly. Nottingham Forest are around €507.8m, while Tottenham are around €940.5–964.5m. That is a major difference in individual quality, midfield level and attacking options. Forest are in better rhythm right now, but Spurs have too much quality to be treated as a team with no response potential after two bad results.

Forest under Oliver Glasner have a clear structure: 3-4-2-1 / 3-4-3, direct transitions, physical duels and fast runs behind the defensive line. The 2-2 draw at Liverpool was a strong signal, with Dan Ndoye and Morgan Gibbs-White both scoring. That supports the BTTS part of the bet. At home, with these transition weapons, Forest have a strong route to a goal.

Morgan Gibbs-White being available is a major positive. He is Forest’s main creative player, important for penalties, transitions, set pieces and final passes. With Ndoye’s pace, Delap or Igor Jesus in the box, and Daniel Muñoz providing width, Forest have enough attacking routes to hurt a Tottenham defense that is still finding its balance.

Tottenham’s start has been poor: two defeats, no goals scored and five conceded against Brentford and Newcastle. But from a betting perspective, that also creates value on the reaction. De Zerbi’s team can already dominate possession, but the final product has been missing. With this squad and this level of pressure, I expect Spurs to produce more in attack.

The summer rebuild was huge. Tonali, Mateus Fernandes, Sávio, Jan Paul van Hecke, Tosin Adarabioyo, Omar Marmoush, Mudryk, Robertson, Senesi and Dubravka all arrived. This is not a small adjustment; it is a full reboot. De Zerbi has admitted that the team is not fully functioning as a team yet, but the quality is there. Against Forest, that should be enough for Tottenham to score and stay alive in the result.

Tottenham have several routes to goal. Marmoush’s movement, Tel’s speed, Mateus Fernandes between the lines, Tonali and Bentancur controlling possession, plus Sávio or Mudryk in one-vs-one situations give Spurs enough attacking potential. If Tottenham control the ball, Forest will need to defend deeper for spells, and Spurs can create from cutbacks, half-space combinations and second-wave attacks.

The injury picture is not perfect for Spurs, but the attack is not empty. Maddison’s status matters for creativity, Sávio is a key question, and Xavi Simons, Odobert and Kulusevski reduce the attacking rotation. Kudus returning is a positive even if he has a minutes limit. Richarlison is not in the Premier League squad, so he should not be part of the scoring logic, but Marmoush, Tel, Mudryk/Sávio and Mateus Fernandes still give enough quality.

For Forest, Sangaré’s status is important. His ball-winning, physicality and midfield coverage would be valuable against Spurs. If he is out, Tottenham can control second balls more effectively through Tonali and Bentancur. That supports the Tottenham double-chance side of the bet. Savona is more of a rotational loss, with Daniel Muñoz reducing the impact on the wide areas.

Tactically, this match fits the selected market well. Forest can hurt a De Zerbi team that wants possession but remains vulnerable in transitions. That gives the home goal a clear path. At the same time, this type of open, transitional game can also be exactly what Tottenham need to score their first league goal, because Forest will not simply sit in a deep bunker, especially after their performance at Liverpool.

The midfield battle is key for Spurs. If Tonali and Bentancur control the second balls, Tottenham can settle the game after Forest transitions and keep possession for longer spells. That is the base for the Tottenham or Draw part of the bet: squad quality, reaction pressure and enough midfield control to avoid defeat.

Craig Pawson is an experienced Premier League referee, with Peter Bankes on VAR. This is not a referee-based pick, although the intensity of the match can bring strong duels, especially with Spurs under pressure and Forest attacking quickly. The main value is in the match script: Forest have a strong home scoring route, while Tottenham have the quality and urgency to score and avoid defeat.

The weather and pitch conditions are normal. The City Ground has natural grass, with around 19°C, sunny spells and light wind expected. There is no major weather distortion. That supports a normal Premier League tempo, where Forest’s transitions and Tottenham’s possession game can both create chances.