Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United

Competition: UEFA Champions League | League Phase, Matchday 2
Date: 13 October 2026
Kick-off: 21:00 CEST (19:00 UTC)
Venue: Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Referee: Glenn Nyberg | 33 yellow cards and 1 red across 9 matches in the 2026 Swedish league season.
VAR: Pol van Boekel
Weather forecast: Around 24°C at kick-off, clear and dry, with light winds of approximately 6 km/h.

Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes AND Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.76

I expect both teams to find the net and the match to produce at least three goals. Atlético have been effective going forward, while Manchester United continue to create opportunities despite disappointing league results. A 2–1, 1–2 or 2–2 would suit this selection. Neither 1–1 nor 3–0 would be enough, as both conditions must be met.

Atlético’s attacking numbers provide one of the strongest reasons for the pick. They average 2.3 goals and 6.5 shots on target per league match, placing them among LaLiga’s leading sides in both categories. Their 24 big chances also show that they regularly reach dangerous scoring positions. Against a United side conceding 1.5 goals per game, I expect Atlético to create opportunities at home.

United scoring is the less certain part, but there are reasons to support it. They average 1.5 goals and 5.3 shots on target per match, while their 205 touches in the opposition penalty area lead the Premier League. Those figures suggest more attacking potential than their results alone might indicate. However, they have missed 11 of their 16 big chances, making their finishing particularly important here.

Atlético’s European home record adds useful context. They scored 22 goals across eight home matches in last season’s Champions League, yet have conceded in 14 of their 15 European home fixtures since the start of 2024. That supports my expectation that United can find opportunities in Madrid. Those games involved different opponents, but they show why a low-scoring Atlético European fixture should not be assumed.

The team news affects the selection in both directions. Mainoo and Shaw have not travelled, while Ugarte and Šeško have also been sidelined through injury. Those absences could complicate United’s midfield and defensive work, although losing Šeško also weakens their attacking options. De Ligt has returned to the travelling squad, giving Carrick another option at the back. Atlético are reported to have a fully fit squad, with Barrios and Sørloth returning in the weekend league match.

I expect Atlético to take the initiative, but United’s attacks can also carry a threat. An early goal could help this selection: the team falling behind may eventually need to take more risks, creating opportunities at both ends. My expectation is a game in which one side can score twice and the other responds at least once.

The clearest counterargument is Atlético’s domestic defending. They have conceded only one goal per match and kept three clean sheets. If they reproduce that performance and United remain wasteful, the away goal could fail to arrive. The league figures are therefore useful pointers rather than a direct forecast for a Champions League game with different opponents and tactical demands.